A geopolitical shock in Asia is increasingly seen as a core strategic risk to the European economy.

Few regions are as vital to Europe’s industrial performance and market stability as the Asia-Pacific – home to critical supply chains, export markets, and maritime trade routes. Yet tensions are mounting over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula. What once seemed like distant security concerns are now tangible economic fault lines – with the potential to send shockwaves through global production systems, energy markets, and regulatory environments.

This strategic briefing examines the growing collision between two opposing dynamics: on the one hand, Europe’s deepening reliance on Asia as a production base, export destination, and technological partner; on the other, the rising risk that these interdependencies could be destabilized by sudden geopolitical confrontation. The question is no longer if a disruptive conflict could erupt, but how close we are to such a scenario – and how resilient businesses are in the face of it.

Participants will gain insight into the most critical geopolitical flashpoints, the most plausible escalation scenarios, and the likely pace at which a crisis could unfold – along with its cascading effects: from supply and shipping disruptions to energy price volatility, capital flow reallocation, and regulatory or compliance shocks. Among the scenarios addressed, particular attention is given to a disruptive conflict over Taiwan – by far the most dangerous scenario in the Asia-Pacific region for the European economy. Such a conflict would severely disrupt key technological supply chains, shake global capital markets, trigger political responses, and ultimately force a reconfiguration of the global economic architecture.

Designed for business leaders, risk managers, and economic policymakers, the session combines strategic foresight with practical relevance. It equips participants to identify early warning signals, assess exposure within their sector or organization, and develop forward-looking strategies to strengthen resilience and informed decision-making under intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.