Asia in Review Archive 2019 (January – June)

India

News summary

Indian police deserters among four killed in Kashmir

(cl) On Friday, two low-ranking police deserters were among four rebels killed overnight in a firefight with government forces in India-administered Kashmir. Soldiers laid siege to a residential area, triggering an exchange of fire with armed militants hiding in a house late on Thursday evening. [Aljazeera]

The former Himalayan kingdom is divided between Pakistan and India, and for decades, rebel groups have been fighting for independence from Indian rule or a merger of Kashmir with Pakistan. Many officers had deserted the police force in the past to join the rebels in the restive region to fight some 500,000 Indian soldiers who have been deployed in the disputed territory for decades. [The Guardian]

This year, more than 100 militants have been killed. Such gun battles between anti-India rebels and government forces are frequent in territory controlled by New Delhi and while India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting the rebels, Pakistan has denied this allegation by stating that it only provides moral and diplomatic support to a Kashmiri struggle for right to self-determination. [BBC News]

Four dead in shootout between rival Indian political parties

(cl) A gun battle between supporters of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a regional rival has killed four people in West Bengal on Sunday, and at least 18 others were injured in the clashes that broke out on Saturday in the eastern state that has been on edge since Prime Minister Modi’s BJP launched an aggressive campaign to win parliamentary seats last year. [Khaleej Times] [Arab News]

Violence peaked across the state during elections in April-May and has continued even after results, giving a massive nationwide victory to BJP. BJP and opposition parties have often accused each other of killings, intimidation and corruption. BJP, which has traditionally held sway in the Hindi-speaking belt in the north, has been trying hard to pick up support in West Bengal where the opposition party has dominated for a decade. In the past, the state has witnessed several violent feuds between rival parties – last month, a BJP supporter was shot dead in Kolkata and last year, a BJP worker was hanged from a tree. State elections in West Bengal are scheduled to be held in 2021. [New Straits Times]

India is about to outlaw cryptocurrencies

(ls) The Indian government is taking steps to ban cryptocurrencies. The “Banning of Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2019” draft proposes a 10-year prison sentence for persons who “mine, generate, hold, sell, transfer, dispose, issue or deal in cryptocurrencies.” Given the chances of cryptocurrencies being misused for money laundering, various government bodies such as the Income Tax Department and the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) had previously endorsed banning of cryptocurrencies. [Economic Times]

Hindus’ attitudes towards secularism in India

(ls) The Washington Post has published the summary of a research conducted by Ajay Verghese, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California at Riverside, about Indians’ attitudes toward secularism. He conducted a survey of 900 Hindus across the state of Bihar on religion and politics. His preliminary findings show that Hindus in Bihar overwhelmingly support many of the ideals of Indian secularism, including government support for mosques. However, the more religious voters are, the more they subscribe to the tenets of Hindu nationalism, especially the idea that Hindus deserve preferential treatment over Muslims. [Washington Post]

India is about to outlaw cryptocurrencies

(ls) The Indian government is taking steps to ban cryptocurrencies. The “Banning of Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2019” draft proposes a 10-year prison sentence for persons who “mine, generate, hold, sell, transfer, dispose, issue or deal in cryptocurrencies.” Given the chances of cryptocurrencies being misused for money laundering, various government bodies such as the Income Tax Department and the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) had previously endorsed banning of cryptocurrencies. [Economic Times]

Four dead in shootout between rival Indian political parties

(cl) A gun battle between supporters of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a regional rival has killed four people in West Bengal on Sunday, and at least 18 others were injured in the clashes that broke out on Saturday in the eastern state that has been on edge since Prime Minister Modi’s BJP launched an aggressive campaign to win parliamentary seats last year. [Khaleej Times] [Arab News]

Violence peaked across the state during elections in April-May and has continued even after results, giving a massive nationwide victory to BJP. BJP and opposition parties have often accused each other of killings, intimidation and corruption. BJP, which has traditionally held sway in the Hindi-speaking belt in the north, has been trying hard to pick up support in West Bengal where the opposition party has dominated for a decade. In the past, the state has witnessed several violent feuds between rival parties – last month, a BJP supporter was shot dead in Kolkata and last year, a BJP worker was hanged from a tree. State elections in West Bengal are scheduled to be held in 2021. [New Straits Times]

Indian police deserters among four killed in Kashmir

(cl) On Friday, two low-ranking police deserters were among four rebels killed overnight in a firefight with government forces in India-administered Kashmir. Soldiers laid siege to a residential area, triggering an exchange of fire with armed militants hiding in a house late on Thursday evening. [Aljazeera]

The former Himalayan kingdom is divided between Pakistan and India, and for decades, rebel groups have been fighting for independence from Indian rule or a merger of Kashmir with Pakistan. Many officers had deserted the police force in the past to join the rebels in the restive region to fight some 500,000 Indian soldiers who have been deployed in the disputed territory for decades. [The Guardian]

This year, more than 100 militants have been killed. Such gun battles between anti-India rebels and government forces are frequent in territory controlled by New Delhi and while India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting the rebels, Pakistan has denied this allegation by stating that it only provides moral and diplomatic support to a Kashmiri struggle for right to self-determination. [BBC News]

India: Court convicts six men for gang rape and murder of eight-year-old Muslim girl

(ls) An Indian court has convicted six men for the gang rape and murder of an eight-year-old nomadic Muslim girl in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kathua region. The case sparked a massive country-wide outrage. According to the findings of the court, the girl was kidnapped on January 10, 2018 and raped in captivity in a small village temple in Kathua district after being kept sedated for four days. The case had also a political dimension as two ministers of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had participated in a rally organized in support of the accused. [India Today]

Trump’s trade attack pushes India to the negotiating table

(cl) India plans to return to the negotiating table after President Donald Trump’s termination of its trade concession under the decades-old Generalised System of Preferences trade programme, which allowed the country to export almost 2,000 products to the US duty-free, took effect last Friday. [Bloomberg] However, the US official said the benefits could be restored if India gave US companies fair and equitable access to its markets. A statement from India’s Trade Ministry stated that while the country would continue to work on improving ties with the US, its trade decisions would be guided by its own “development imperatives and concerns”. Media reports said that New Delhi was considering higher import duties on more than 20 US products, including agricultural goods. [Financial Times]

India is the world’s largest beneficiary of GSP, which dates from the 1970s, and ending its participation would not only be the strongest punitive action against the country since Mr Trump took office, but also open a new front in the global trade war. While last year, India announced higher tariffs on a clutch of items in retaliation to US imposing higher levies on its products, it repeatedly deferred imposition of the new tariffs as it kept the door open for talks to avert a trade war. [Fortune]

National education policy draft amended to address “imposition” of Hindi

(cl) Amid outcry over Hindi being made a compulsory language in all non-Hindi speaking states, the Human Resource Development ministry has tweaked the draft National Education Policy to say that students are free to choose any language they wish to study in. [India Express]

In the previous version of the draft policy, English and Hindi were proposed as mandatory languages in non-Hindi speaking states while a third language was mandatory in Hindi-speaking states. [The Wire] This triggered outrage in southern states, led by Tamil Nadu, which said they will not tolerate Hindi imposition in the state that does not speak the language. Following protests initiated by Tamil Nadu over the “Hindi Imposition”, the Centre was forced to respond that it was only a draft policy and Hindi would not be imposed in any state. [India Today]

Less rumours and fake news after Modi’s election victory

(cl/jk) During the election, WhatsApp and Facebook had been popular vehicles to spread misleading information, especially as according to a recent Reuters Institute survey, 52% of Indian internet users receive news via WhatsApp. Previously on 1 April, Facebook removed 687 pages and accounts that it said were linked to the Congress party for “coordinated inauthentic behaviour”. [BBC News]

After Narendra Modi-led NDA’s (National Democratic Alliance) landslide win, several Facebook pages known for their hardcore anti-Modi posts leading up to and during the elections have recently deleted their old posts. Fact checkers had busted many such viral posts from these pages, but this did not deter Facebook pages such as Viral in India, which has since suspended its operation, from feeding the public with false political propaganda during the elections process. Both pro and anti-government sites have spread huge amounts of news, fake-news and rumours in the lead-up and during the election but the efforts seem to slow down for the moment.  [India Today]

National Security Conversations: India, Indo-Pacific and the Quad

(jk) In a conversation with a former commander and retired naval officer from the Indian Navy, the discussion evolves around the latest on the Quad as well as the Indo-Pacific concept from an Indian perspective. Is India soft-pedalling the Quad or does it want it to grow stronger? [TheWire]

India elections: Prime Minister Modi emerges victorious in landslide victory

(jk/cl) After 6 weeks of tallying more than 600 million votes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi clinched a second term with a historic landslide victory in the country’s general elections, the biggest democratic exercise in the world. [Aljazeera] Voter turnout was the highest ever in India, at a tentative 67.1% across 542 constituencies. [Times of India] An offer to resign as Congress party president by Rahul Gandhi was rejected by the party after the election results were made official.

As an indication of its confidence, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) started planning for the next five years of government prior to the announcement, but confidence was certainly warranted as not the outcome as such, but the scale of the victory surprised many. [Straits Times] Prior to the announcements, it has been discussed whether or not Modi’s BJP will manage to secure the 272 seats it needs for a majority in parliament as they had done in the 2014 election (282 seats). Stunningly, the BJP’s count alone now stands at 303 seats, and if that is combined with its coalition partners it will reach around 350 seats. Its success marks a significant development in modern Indian politics that has for the past few decades witnessed a strong anti-incumbency trend at national elections. The BJP is the first consecutively elected single-majority party since the Congress Party in 1971.

During the elections, two dozen opposition parties complained about alleged manipulation of the Electronic Voting Machines, a charge dismissed by the Election Commission. This controversy is an indication of how acrimonious the election campaign has been and the deep distrust that exists between the opposition and ruling parties. During campaigning, political leaders took pot-shots at each other in what many have described as the most negative elections in recent times. [Hindustan Times]

The BJP instead successfully pitched its political campaign on the popularity of Mr Modi and the issue of national security, following the outbreak of hostilities with Pakistan over the killing of 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir in April. [Straits Times 2] Amongst its key campaign promises, BJP pledged cash handouts to farmers, USD$1.4 trillion to build roads, railways, airports and other infrastructure and tax cuts for middle-class Indians, which evidently resonated with voters. [Bloomberg] Staying true to its Hindu nationalism, the BJP has also pledged it plans to revise the country’s constitution, taking away privileges granted to its only Muslim majority state Jammu & Kashmir. Incidentally, the government has also refuted a recent report by the Human Rights Council, alleging widespread violations of basic human rights and torture in the area by government security forces. [ATimes]

The political and administrative continuity in India signals closer ties with the United States, said India’s Ambassador to the US, particularly on issues such as security, defence and counter-terrorism. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has also stated that India is working to further cooperation with counties that are part of the Indo-Pacific, particularly its Southeast Asian colleagues. [Economic Times] Further, Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Khan highlighted the need for “peace”, after the vote and signalled a willingness to work for a peaceful and stable relationship.  The optimistic language by the two leaders came not long after Pakistan said it had tested a surface-to-surface missile capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads. [Straits Times] Currently, rumours have it that Modi’s first trip abroad in his second term will be a visit to the Maldives. [livemint]

A growing concern for observers of the Indian parliament is the high (and growing) number of MPs facing criminal charges. According to the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR) 19% of the candidates had declared open criminal cases against themselves in this election. Among India’s newly elected members of parliament, almost half face criminal charges and almost one third of them for very serious cases related to rape, murder or kidnapping. The BJP has not only most seats, but also the highest ration of MPs facing criminal charges (almost 40%). [ATimes]

India: Economists rebuke Modi over alleged distortion of economic numbers; Congress claims BJP has tarnished India’s reputation abroad

(zf) A group of more than 100 economists have released a report this week that deeply criticizes Prime Minister Modi’s government for distorting, omitting, or downplaying certain aspects of India’s economy in the run up to next month’s parliamentary elections. The report especially emphasized that Mr. Modi’s government have likely altered the numbers for political reasons, and mentions several particularly worrisome examples of government meddling, including the replacement of a government critic as chairman of India’s central bank, questionable growth rate numbers, and a delay over the release of official unemployment statistics. It is claimed that the official numbers fail to represent an objective assessment of the national economy. The signatories of the report are from a mix of both Western and Indian-based universities, and includes several well-respected professors in the field, including MIT’s Abhijit Banerjee and Harvard’s Emily Breza. [Al Jazeera]

India’s main opposition, the Indian National Congress Party, took the release of the report as an opportunity to further criticize BJP for alleged corruption and mismanagement of the country. The opposition party’s chief spokesman went as far as to say that Mr. Modi’s government has drastically hurt India’s reputation and credibility on the global stage. He urged voters to reject a party that ‘hides its failures with statistical jugglery.’ While it remains to be seen how voters will respond to accusations such as these in next month’s elections, evidence that suggests statistical tampering is a sign that the ruling party may have insecurities over the current state of the economy as the polls draw near. [Times of India]

India: Modi and prominent BJP leaders launch ‘watchman’ campaign

(zf/jk) Prime Minister Modi and other BJP leaders unveiled a new party campaign this week that looks to portray the ruling party as the ‘watchmen’ of India and its interests. Inherent in such as slogan is the suggestion that Congress (INC) and other opposition parties are failing to look out for the nation’s best interests on some fundamental level. Mr. Modi, who has rarely shied away from nationalistic rhetoric on the campaign trail meant to rally his right-leaning constituency, has often described himself as a watchman of Indian interests and security. In a tweet announcing the campaign, Mr. Modi claimed that India’s watchman (himself) continues to ‘fight corruption, dirt, and social ills,’ and that anyone else who follows suit should also be described as a watchman. In response to the campaign, INC released their own counter-slogan, ‘the watchman is a thief,’ in order to emphasize a claim of BJP engagement with crony capitalism and poor economic policy. [NDTV] [Bloomberg]

With election from 11 April to 19 May on the horizon, there are also increasing worries that BJP’s rule has led to more conflation of religion and politics and that identity politics in general has polarised society. Numbers circulating in the media suggest that hate crimes have gone up significantly since Modi came to office, referencing as much as a 400 per cent increase since 2014 with most crimes occurring in states governed by the BJP. While the victims are predominantly religious minorities, the perpetrators are often Hindu radicals emboldened by Modi’s leadership and his past involvement with the radical RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) [BBC] – a fundamentalist religious organization supporting the BJP and Modi with an often extreme Hindu-First policy. [South China Morning Post]

Maldives to install radar systems it received from India this year

(jk) Just before the two-day visit of the Indian Minister of External Affairs to the Maldives commenced on Sunday, the Maldives Military said that the installation of 10 radar systems gifted by the Indian government to protect its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) will be completed within the end of this year. [Avas 1, Avas 2] India and the Maldives had already signed a cooperation agreement to that extent in 2016, but former President Yameen refused to allow the installation of Indian radars. At the same press conference where the above statement was made, a spokesman has also said that around 50 Indian soldiers are stationed in the Maldives alongside two helicopters that were previously gifted by the Indian government. Previously, it had only been said that around 30 technical staff maintaining an individual helicopter were in the country at any given time. [Avas 3]

India and U.S. agree to nuclear power plant construction plan

(zf) The United States and India have announced a partnership this week to increase cooperation on civil nuclear energy. The deal, announced in Washington after several days of negotiations, details a joint plan to construct six new nuclear power plants in India over the next several years. The two countries have been in negotiations over proposed expansion of India’s nuclear power capabilities for over a decade, with a major sticking point being a piece of Indian liability law that might have conferred the costs and blame of potential accidents on the sites’ construction company, as opposed to local operators. The announcement should be seen as another step towards the implementation of India’s national plan to triple its nuclear power capabilities by 2024 in order to help reduce consumption of fossil fuels. A similar deal was struck with Russia last year toward this same goal. [Al Jazeera]

India and Myanmar engage in joint military operations on border to disrupt terror camps

(zf) It has been confirmed this week that India has been participating in joint military operations with Myanmar to disrupt and destroy terror camps along their shared northernmost border areas. Reporting has detailed operations that took place in late February and early March, and which may be still ongoing. While some reports have suggested a cross border operation by Indian forces into Burmese territory, officials maintain that no incursions into international territory took place and that India’s main concern was keeping the rebel factions off domestic soil. It is claimed that the strikes destroyed 12 rebel outposts, and had been primarily directed by the Burmese army with Indian help both strategically and in the supply of weapons. Besides rebel incursions, another concern in the region were the group’s potential disruptions of an infrastructure plan known as the Kaladan Project, which looks to increase connectivity between Kolkata and Sittwe, Myanmar by way of both land and water-based transport systems. The main catalyst for the operation, therefore, seems to be increased hostile activity by a local rebel group known as the Arakan Army, which exists on an ideology of national separatism from Myanmar-proper, and were seen as a threat to Indian construction workers at Kaladan. [Economic Times] [Times of India] [Hindustan Times]

India: Dates set for parliamentary elections

(zf/ls) It was officially announced late this week that India’s parliamentary elections will take place in seven successive rounds, starting on April 11th and ending on May 19th, with May 23rd set to be the day all results will be declared. In all, a total of 543 seats are up for grabs in India’s lower house, which is locally known as the Lok Sabha. [Economic Times] [Times of India]

It was also announced that scheduled elections for the state assembly in Jammu and Kashmir will be postponed due to the ongoing threats of violence. However, Lok Sabha polls are still set to take place in the region along with the rest of the country. In a statement, the Indian government claimed that a panel of security observers will assess the situation in the state moving forward in hopes of setting an assembly election date sometime later this year. [NDTV] [Hindustan Times]

Major issues in the election are expected to be unemployment and national security. According to recent data, the unemployment rate in February this year stood at 7.2%, up from 5% in February, 2017. Meanwhile, India’s farmers have staged numerous protests in recent years, amid reports of falling incomes and increasing distress in the farm sector. Due to the Indian-Pakistani tensions in recent weeks, the Kashmir issue is also likely to continue to feature prominently in campaigns. [CNN]

Despite recent election losses, Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still controls 17 out of 29 states, including the most populous (Uttar Pradesh) and the richest (Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai). However, current polls predict losses for the Modi government. A reduced majority would imperil Modi’s economic reforms and strengthen his coalition partners’ leverage, making for unstable government. [Washington Post]

India: Supreme Court orders arbitration in decades-long dispute over religious site

(zf) An arbitration panel was appointed this week by India’s Supreme Court over a decades-long dispute over a religious site in the Uttar Pradesh city of Ayodhya. The panel will be headed by former Supreme Court judge FM Kalifulla. Interestingly, the panel will also include Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, a self-described Hindu god-man who has repeatedly expressed doubt on the feasibility of the peaceful implementation of a hypothetical Supreme Court decision in favor of Muslim interests at the location. Shankar’s inclusion on the panel, therefore, has unsurprisingly generated substantial controversy. A backlash over his appointment is especially pronounced among Muslim community members who claim that his inclusion in the panel serves as a blatant disregard for fair arbitration. [NDTV]

The dispute itself revolves around the proposed construction of a Hindu temple on the location of a 16th century Mosque that was destroyed in 1992. The mosque was torn down by a Hindu mob that claimed Muslim Mughal invaders had desecrated the site by building a Mosque on a sacred temple originally built for Hindus. As evidence to the importance of the site, some Hindus claim that the location is the birthplace of Lord Ram, a prominent Hindu deity who in seen as an incarnation of Vishnu, one of Hindu’s most important gods. Others emphasize the location as an important pilgrimage site that should be restored for its original use.

On the other hand, Muslim’s claim that the site was legally purchased and built upon, while Hindu extremists had violently torn down their sacred place of worship. In the wake of the 1992 riots, some 2000 people lost their lives in communal violence, which speaks to the deep-seated baggage that the case brings with it. [Economic Times]

As for now, the arbitration panel has been given eight weeks to come to an agreement on the site. While the issue will surely be a closely followed topic, the Supreme Court has mandated that the panel work in secrecy in order not to inflame tensions, and the local media has been banned from covering the proceedings. The arbitration comes after a 2011 decision by the Supreme Court that suspended a lower court ruling to split the site into three parts, with one area dedicated for Muslim worshippers, and the other two regulated to Hindu worship. [Al Jazeera]

India: Violence continues in Kashmir; doubt over Indian success claims after air-raid site confirmed standing

(zf/ls) In a sign that a resolution to the violence in Kashmir is making little progress, another attack this week by a Pakistani-based militant group in Jammu killed one person and injured over 30 others. This attack comes just weeks after the Pulwama terrorist attack, which set off a wave of escalating tensions between the two nuclear-capable states and left the internationally community fearing uncontrollable escalations of violence might be imminent. While the worst-case scenario of sustained cross-border war seems less likely at this juncture, the continued violence will certainty do little to curb Indian hard-liners bent on revenge.

With that said, some details pertaining to the latest attack speak to the complicated nature of the situation: While the group who claimed responsibility for the attack was based in Pakistan, the individual who carried out the attack was a Kashmiri Indian national, just as in Pulwama. While it has been regularly reported that some Indian citizens have been radicalized in Kashmir, especially based on arguments that Delhi has imposed on them a life of oppressive militarization, this contradicts arguments given by some news outlets and other hard-liners in India who frame the issue solely in terms of Pakistani aggression. [Reuters] [Economic Times] [Hindustan Times] 

Meanhwile, Pakistan intensified its crackdown against Islamist militants on Thursday, with the government announcing it had taken control of 182 religious schools and detained more than 100 people as part of its push against banned groups. The move represents Pakistan’s biggest move against banned organizations in years. However, many of the groups are popular among the poor because they operate networks of charities. Some groups have also enjoyed the support of the military and intelligence services. [Reuters 2] [Arab News]

In a related development, it has been reported that some air-raid sites that India claims to have destroyed following Pulwama are still standing, as per satellite imaging evidence that has been reviewed by several news outlets. The images, originally produced by a U.S.-based private satellite operator called Planet Labs, Inc., purport to show that a religious school in northeastern Pakistan run by the terrorist group responsible for last month’s attack appears to be unscathed. This comes after repeated claims by the Indian government that its air force had destroyed the group’s terrorist training faculties at the site.

The evidence seems to buttress Pakistan’s version of events, where it is claimed that India failed to produce damage to Pakistani-based infrastructure. The Indian government has yet to respond to inquires as to whether this evidence undermines their official narrative of events. While speculation over Indian obfuscation regarding its counter-insurgency raids are a fraught subject in the absence of further corroborating evidence, it is conceivable that Indian officials were eager to claim victory after the raids as a means to placate the nationalist voices calling for severe escalations, and to give the government tangible cover regarding an appropriate response to the attack in the run up to next month’s parliamentary elections. [Reuters 3]

India to lease Russian submarine

(ls) India has sealed a USD 3 billion deal with Russia for leasing of a nuclear-powered attack submarine for the Indian Navy for a period of 10 years. It will be the third Russian submarine to be leased to the Indian Navy. Russia, India’s cold war ally, remains a major supplier of arms to India, irritating the United States, which has imposed sanctions on nations buying military hardware from Moscow. India has been significantly bolstering its naval prowess in the backdrop of China’s attempts to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean region. [Economic Times] [South China Morning Post]

U.S.-Indian trade relations face uncertainty as India insists on Iranian oil imports (zf) As AiR has reported last month, the Trump Administration plans to end the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India, an economic agreement that gives the country’s companies preferential access to U.S. markets, reasoning that Delhi has not been as accommodating as it should be regarding reciprocal access for U.S. companies in the Indian marketplace. [CNN]

The matter may be further complicated by Indian efforts to maintain its relationship with Iranian oil producers. As it stands, India is one of several countries that have negotiated a waiver with the U.S. to continue buying Iranian oil after the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and re-imposed harsh sanctions on the country, albeit in lower quantities. Although this round of wavers is set to expire in May, India made it clear this week that it wants to extend the deal. The U.S., however, has been pushing hard to reduce international purchases of Iranian oil as a means to further isolate the country after allegedly undermining the non-proliferation treaty.

It remains to be seen, however, how successful the U.S. will be in this endeavor, especially since its exit from the treaty was a generally unpopular move among allies who had likely assumed Iran would be open for business in the coming decades. When asked about the waiver extensions, a U.S. spokesman confirmed that the government is in ongoing discussions with the relevant countries to negotiate an agreed upon settlement of the issue, and reiterated that the U.S. supports eventually cutting Iranian exports with these countries to zero. [Reuters]

After India and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is to continue South Asian investments in Bangladesh

(cc/ls) Bangladesh’s finance Minister said the country is expecting $35 billion of Saudi investment mostly in roads, rail, power and energy, tourism and hospitality, health, textiles, food processing and pharmaceuticals. However, no timeline has been given by the government and the current bilateral trade is worth only $1.4 Billion per year. Under Prime Minister Hasina, the ties between the two Muslim-majority countries have been reinforced. Saudia Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Salman recently also committed his country to major investments in India and Pakistan. [Reuters]

India: Sitting Lok Sabha BJP lawmaker joins Congress Party

(zf) Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and other party leaders joined sitting Uttar Pradesh MP Savitribai Phule as she announced she would be joining Indian National Congress. Ms. Phule had publicly quit the BJP in December 2018, arguing that the party was overly dividing Indian society. In a statement, she said that she has joined Congress to “save the constitution and the country.” Phule is a prominent leader in Uttar Pradesh’s Dalit community, a highly marginalized subclass of the Indian population who have historically been on the lowest rung of the socio-economic ladder. The development is a clear indication that Congress is looking to make a comeback in state politics during this year’s elections. [Economic Times] [NDTV]

India – Pakistan: Immediate crisis averted after Pakistan releases captured pilot but hostilities resume in Kashmir

(zf/jk) An international crisis was averted this week after a captured Indian Air Force pilot was released by the Pakistani government. The pilot had been in Pakistani air space after the Indian military ordered pre-emptive and retaliatory strikes into the country as a response to last month’s terrorist attacks in Kashmir. The return of the pilot has led to the collective exhale of an international community that feared the incident might have acted as the spark that ignited a widening of hostilities between the two countries. Pakistan described the release as a gesture of peace toward India. In response to the release, U.N. Secretary-General Guterres praised the development and urged the two sides to take this as an opportunity to “sustain the positive momentum and engage in further constructive dialogue.” [New York Times] [NDTV]

Despite the U.N.’s exhortations, however, it seems that sustained rapprochement might not be as close as some hope: six Pakistani civilians and two members of its military were killed over the weekend as a result of Indian shelling and mortar fire across the Line of Control (LoC). Indian authorities claim that casualties have occurred on their side of the border as well, including the deaths of a civilian woman and two children. At this juncture it remains to be seen how the crisis will continue to unfold. In the first wave of air attacks into Pakistan that occurred at the beginning of the week, the Indian Air Force claims that significant terrorist training camps have been eliminated, although independent verification of these assertions have yet to be confirmed. Likewise, the return of its pilot, along with the opportunity to frame the release as a Pakistani bow to Indian pressure and military might, may give Prime Minister Modi an opportunity to take control of the narrative at home and allow his BJP government to save face and perpetuate its perception as the hawkish, security-focused party in the run up to this year’s national elections.

This point in particular is in India often enforced by hawkish media outlets, including one partially owned by a BJP politician [Republic], which has proclaimed that India has “brought Pakistan to its knees” and that “India’s decisive battle has begun”, echoing Modi’s own awkward pun on the release being only a “pilot project” with the “real project” yet to happen. [National Interest/ India Times] Both Pakistani and Indian media have run with news stories that were fake, for instance using older video material of shot down fighter jets and displaying it as current footage. A relatively balanced summary of the media reports that were fake can be found here [Quartz]. In Pakistan, mainstream media stressed the appreciation of the international community of PM Khan’s move to de-escalate, as well as a petition that is making the rounds suggesting him for a Nobel peace prize [Pakistan Today]. PM Khan himself has already rejected this idea and peace, despite his rather reasonable talk of constraint – “I ask India: with the weapons you have and the weapons we have, can we really afford such a miscalculation? If this escalates, things will no longer be in my control or in Modi’s.” – is far from certain. [Dawn] Modi over the weekend chaired a meeting of the National Security Council on Sunday, making a point that the crisis is far from over. [India Today] Regardless of who is spinning the narrative, at least for the moment, uncontrollable escalation between the two nuclear-capable states seems to have been neutralized. [Guardian] [Washington Post] [BBC]

As far as the political opposition goes, a Congress Party (INC) spokesman laid into the ruling party for what it characterized as the politicization of a serious international crisis. In an effort to thread the needle between criticism of the government response and being careful to deflect accusations of national disloyalty, Congress noted the courage of the captured pilot and emphasized the need for national unity while claiming that the decision to commit the Indian Air Force to attacks across the border were a risky and unnecessary escalation of hostilities between the two nations undertaken primarily as a means to buttress his nationalist constituency in a time when righteous anger toward Pakistan was at fever pitch. [The Hindu]

Joint venture between India and Russia to manufacture the Kalashnikov assault rifles

(jk) Prime Minister Modi laid a foundation stone of a manufacturing unit last week which will see local Indian production of the famed Kalashnikov assault rifles’ newest series, the AK-203. The agreement to fully localize the production of the small arms was reached between Modi and Putin at the end of last year and further emphasizes the close security relationship between the two countries. The factory’s location, Amethi, has been a Congress stronghold for decades and is the constituency of the Nehru-Gandhi family since 1980. [NDTV]

Kashmir’s armed groups fighting for independence

(jk) Kashmir continues to suffer from an unresolved dispute over whether the territory should be part of India, Pakistan or be independent. Involved in the struggle are a number of armed groups that fight for Kashmiri self-determination. This useful [Al Jazeera] piece provides some basic background on who these groups are. One of them, Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), is the group that claimed responsibility for the recent terror attack in India that set off the recent India-Pakistan crisis.