Asia in Review Archive 2020

India

News summary

India’s caution as US sanctions Turkey over S-400 deal with Russia

(lm) Russia’s ambassador to India said on December 21 that Moscow’s ongoing deals with New Delhi for military hardware, including the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, are “advancing well”. India placed a $5.3 billion order for five units in 2018 and paid the first tranche of $ 800 million in 2019. Consignment is scheduled to begin by end-2021 and be completed some three years later. [Hindustan Times]

Timing and context of the remarks are noteworthy: Earlier this month, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey for Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. The 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) – a US federal law legislation meant to dissuade countries from procuring Russian military equipment and financially undermine one of Moscow’s major revenue sources – requires the US president to impose sanctions on countries in violation. 

Ever since India signed the S-400 deal, the advent of CAATSA has surfaced sporadically, but with little definitiveness that has resulted in keeping New Delhi off-balance and wary. Because the US State Department decides on a case-by-case basis whether to implement sanctions or grant a waiver, New Delhi has set eyes on the incoming Biden-administration. [The Print] [The Wire]

Considering possible implications, Indian observers say there is no probability for CAATSA sanctions. For a start, they would negatively impact the Indo-US relationship at a time when Washington is projecting India as a frontline state at the geopolitical fault line pitting the US and its allies against China [see e.g. AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Moreover, sanctions are unlikely to persuade New Delhi to abandon its defense linkages with Moscow: India is heavily dependent on Russian military goods and Moscow’s largest customer for defense kits [see e.g. AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4, AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. [Observer Research Foundation]

Separately, India on December 1 successfully test-fired on December 23 a Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM) from a defense facility off the coast of Odisha. Jointly developed by India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries, this new-generation MRSAM has been developed to neutralize airborne threats like jets, missiles, and rockets, including projectiles launched simultaneously. Since July, the DRDO has conducted a series of tests for multiple missiles [see e.g. AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4, AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. Earlier this month, India test-fired both an anti-ship and land-attack version of its BrahMos supersonic cruise missile [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [The New Indian Express]

Indian Army chief visits South Korea to enhance military ties

(lm) Indian Army Chief General Naravane on December 28 embarked on a three-day visit to South Korea to bolster military cooperation with the East Asian nation. During his visit, General Naravane is scheduled to meet with several high-ranking Korean officials, including Defense Minister Suh Wook, Chief of Staff General Nam Yeong-shin, and Joint Chief of Staff Chairman General Won In-choul. [Hindustan Times]

The trio marks General Naravane’s visit to a foreign country during the coronavirus pandemic after Myanmar, Nepal [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3].

India, Pakistan step up efforts to entice Central Asian nations

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan is set to sign a letter seeking $4.8 billion loan from the World Bank for a trilateral railway project connecting Pakistan with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. The two landlocked countries have long been trying to connect with Pakistan’s warm water ports – most notably the China-operated Gwadar port [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Islamabad, in turn, aims to expand its footprint in Central Asia by gaining access to the economies of neighboring countries and redirecting their trade through Pakistani ports. [The Express Tribune] [Dawn]

Moreover, Afghanistan was also invited by India to join the next meeting on the joint use of Chabahar Port, a seaport located in southeastern Iran that is being increasingly seen as a fulcrum of connectivity to Afghanistan and central Asia. The announcement came just a week after India held its first trilateral with Iran and Uzbekistan to boost trade ties among the three countries [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. [The Week]

India, Japan review security situation in Indo-Pacific region

(lm) Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his Japanese counterpart Kishi Nobuo on December 23 reviewed the prevailing security situation and the need for a free and open maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. [Hindustan Times]

During their phone conversation, the two ministers reviewed the progress on various bilateral defense cooperation initiatives and expressed commitment to further elevate engagements between their armed forces under the “India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership” military agreement [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Both sides also welcomed the successful conduct of the bilateral maritime exercise “Jimex 2020” [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], as well as of the “Malabar 2020” naval exercises, which had marked the first for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Further, the ministers also welcomed the recent successful visit of the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) chief to India, who had visited New Delhi earlier this month.

Pakistan says one soldier killed by Indian shelling along disputed Kashmir border

(lm) A Pakistani soldier was killed in border clashes with Indian forces along the Line of Control (LoC), the military control line in the disputed Kashmir region. The incident came on the heels of Indian shelling in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, resulting in the death of one civilian and injuries of three more. [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2]

Tensions are running high since Islamabad earlier this month accused New Delhi of attacking a vehicle carrying two UN employees who were traveling through the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir to meet with the victims of a prior Indian violation of the ceasefire agreement. The UN has confirmed has the incident, saying it is being investigated. India, however, denies its forces opened fire. [Anadolu Agency]

India, Vietnam strengthen defense ties, undertake PASSEX exercise in South China Sea

(lm) Taking place against China’s growing assertiveness in the region, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc co-hosted a virtual summit on December 21, signing seven agreements in areas ranging from defense to petrochemical and renewable energy research, and calling for a peaceful, “open and rules-based” Indo-Pacific. India also handed over one of 12 high-speed patrol boats being made for Vietnam under a $100 million line of credit. [South China Morning Post]

In the same vein as a Vietnam-Japan summit held earlier this year [AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], the India-Vietnam summit stressed the importance of ensuring maritime safety and security in the South China Sea as well as peaceful dispute settlement and the adherence to international law. Regarding the latter the joint statement referred to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), and the aspired Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). [The Diplomat]

The summit marked the culmination of a series of high-level exchanges between the two sides throughout this year, including a visit by Vietnam’s vice-president to New Delhi, a phone conversation between the two prime ministers in April to discuss the COVID-19 situation, and an earlier online meeting in November on the sideline of the 37th ASEAN Summit [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3].

Separately, an Indian warship reached Ho Chi Minh City on December 24, delivering humanitarian relief supplies for people affected by floods in central Vietnam under New Delhi’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) III mission. What is more, the visit is also aimed at enhancing maritime cooperation between the two countries, as the warship will be partaking in a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) with the Vietnam People’s Navy in South China Sea, to be held between December 26 and 27. [Hindustan Times] [WION]

Indian Army chief visits forward locations at Line of Actual Control

(lm) While Indian troops remain battle-ready, facing Chinese forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, Indian Army Chief General Naravane on December 23 visited areas on the southern bank of Pangong Tso (a glacial lake at 4,242m), meeting troops deployed in harsh winter conditions at forward locations along the LAC. [The Hindu]

The region has high, finger-like mountain spurs above the water, and control of these spur is disputed by both countries [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. Moreover, temperatures at critical mountain peaks and passes along the de-facto border have dipped below minus 30 degrees Celsius, with local sources saying that a heavy blanket of snow covers most terrain. Most major roads on the Indian side are either blocked by snow already or have restricted movement – including two of the main highways connecting the region to the rest of the country. China, by contrast, has developed formidable infrastructure throughout the Tibet autonomous region. It includes a network of thousands of kilometers of fiber optics, small aperture terminal satellite stations and modern highways and high-speed railways that can rapidly deploy the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Hindustan Times]

In yet another bid to resolve the months-long border stand-off, India and China held their last round of diplomatic talks on December 18 – after more than 40 days without any dialogue. However, notwithstanding periodic hopes for a resolution [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3], Indian media suggest earlier this month that China had not only dug its heels in Ladakh, but had also increased military activity on its side of the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. But what is more, for any de-escalation to take effect, many convoys carrying troops and arms would have to move out, which the roads do not permit. [South China Morning Post]

India: Farmers agree to meet government over new agriculture laws

(lm) Leaders of Indian farmers’ unions have agreed to meet federal ministers on December 29, provided the agenda includes four specific points, most notably modalities to repeal the law and a legal guarantee for higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP), a government fixed benchmark designed to incentivize the farmers and thus ensure adequate food grains production in the country [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. During Tuesday’s meeting, farmers’ leaders will also oppose plans to impose stiff penalties for the burning of crop stubble, a key source of air pollution, a coalition of unions called Samyukta Kisan Morcha said on December 26 in a letter to the agriculture ministry. [Al Jazeera 1]

Though the ministry has agreed on a wide-ranging discussion, it has also indicated its unwillingness to consider repealing the laws Prime Minister Modi says will bring about much needed reform that will introduce transparency, accelerate growth and attract private investment in supply chains [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. The insistence of the protesting farmers, mostly from the country’s two breadbasket states, Punjab and Haryana, that the laws be rolled back has been the central hurdle since talks began on October 13. [The Times of India] [Al Jazeera 2]

India: Authorities detain 75 in Kashmir after anti-Modi alliance wins local polls

(lm) India’s government has detained at least 75 Kashmiri political leaders and activists, including separatist leaders and members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami group to forestall political unrest. Days before, the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an amalgam of seven local political parties that is pro-India but favors self-governance in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory, won a majority of seats in District Development Council (DDC) elections. Elections were also being held to fill over 12,000 vacant seats in panchayats (village councils) and more than 230 in urban local bodies [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. [The Straits Times] [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times]

Held in a staggered eight-phase process, the polls were the first vote  in the region since the revocation of Article 370 and subsequent bifurcation of the former state of Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. After the results for 278 of the 280 segments were declared (counting has halted in the remaining two), both the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Modi and the PAGD claimed victory. While the BJP has ended up with the largest seat share (75), the PAGD has finished as the largest pre-poll alliance (110). [Hindustan Times]

But what is more, the BJP has the highest contested vote share in the Jammu region and the lowest among major parties in the Kashmir region – once again highlighting the fault lines in the union territory´s politics. For a start, Jammu and Kashmir is the only union territory that has a Muslim majority population.  This majority, however, is not equally distributed across the regions: While Islam is practiced by more than 95 percent of population in the 10 districts of the Kashmir valley, Hindus comprise about 60 percent of the population in the districts of the Jammu region. [Deutsche Welle]

In the run-up to the elections, the two main regional political parties – the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – had come together with other parties under the PAGD to contest the elections. However, many prominent Kashmiri politicians and public figures remained in detention with no recourse, or under threat. The BJP, meanwhile, flew some of its top national leaders and cabinet ministers, hoping to make a strong showing in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4].

Addressing an event in Kashmir through video link on December 16, Prime Minister Modi said that development of Jammu and Kashmir is his government’s top priority, terming the recent DDC elections a new chapter, saying it showed the strength of India’s democracy. [Anadolu Agency]

India: NSCN-K faction announces ceasefire, signals return to peace talks

(lm) A breakaway faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), a Maoist separatist group operating mainly in Northeast India, has decided to revive a ceasefire agreement with the Indian government it had unitarily abrogated in 2015. In July, the group had defected from the Myanmar-based fraction of the NSCN-K, and elected Niki Sumi as its new president earlier this month. [The Indian Express] [Nagaland Post]

Observers attribute the success in forcing the militants to lay down their arms to the diplomatic efforts by Indian Army Chief General Naravane, who had visited Myanmar along with Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla in October. At the tame, India also decided to supply an attack submarine to the Myanmar Navy, besides agreeing to further deepen overall military and defense ties [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. [Republic World]

The conflict in the state of Nagaland is India’s longest lasting insurgency, which has continued in one form or another since the Naga National Council – the oldest Naga national organization – declared an independent Naga nation in August 1947. The main goal of the NSCN-K is to establish a sovereign Naga state, the People’s Republic of Nagalim (PRN), by unifying all the Naga-inhabited areas in Northeast India and Northwest Myanmar.

In October, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) – the largest and most influential Naga outfit – made public that it had written to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February to ask for peace talks to be held in “a third country” [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. In 1997, the NSCN-IM and the Indian government signed a bilateral ceasefire agreement, and the two sides been negotiating to reach a conclusive and permanent agreement since August 2019.

India: Farmers vow to continue protest until new laws are repealed

(lm) Hearing a petition on ending the farmers’ protest, the Supreme Court (SC) on December 17 warned that the protests could soon become a ‘national issue’ and suggested the government suspend implementation of the farm laws till negotiations yield some result. The SC also reiterated an offer it had first made the previous day to set up a mediation panel. [The Straits Times] [South China Morning Post]

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been trying to meet the farmers halfway, agreed to pass a law guaranteeing a minimum support price for certain crops like wheat. The protest leaders, however have rejected the government’s offer, vowing to continue to protest until the new agricultural reform laws are repealed [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3]. The farmers filed a petition with the SC on December 18, seeking the quashing of the laws. [Al Jazeera 1]

Prime Minister Modi on December 18 defended the laws once more and invited the protesting farmers for more talks, despite several negotiations failing to break the deadlock. Beyond strongly defending the three new agricultural laws, Modi also flayed the opposition for supporting farmers to oppose the legislation, saying the rival parties were using the shoulders of farmers to regain lost political ground by creating a web of confusion and lies. [Al Jazeera 2]

A Sikh preacher allegedly shot himself amid the farmers’ protests at the Singhu border, purportedly leaving behind a suicide note saying he was unable to see the plight of the protesting farmers. According to police, at least 25 people have died, several of them due to the biting cold weather, h since November 26 when tens of thousands of farmers began to block major roads in and around New Delhi [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. [Hindustan Times]

United States Congress denounces China’s ‘aggression’, calls territorial claims against India ‘baseless’

(lm) The US House of Representatives and the Senate on Tuesday passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which included a section introduced by an Indian-American Congressman that urges the Chinese government to end its military aggression against India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). [South Asia Monitor] [India Today]

Expressing ‘significant concern’ over the continued military aggression by China along the LAC, the NDAA remarks that Beijing ‘should work with’ India toward de-escalating the situation along the Line of Actual Control through existing diplomatic mechanisms and refrain from attempting to settle disputes through coercion or force’. [The Hindu]

Earlier this month, the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC in its report to the US Congress suggested that Beijing might have planned to escalate tensions in June [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3], potentially even planning for the possibility for fatalities. [USCC]

India, Bangladesh sign seven MoU on cooperation

(lm) Bangladesh and India on December 17 signed seven Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in a range of areas including trade, energy and agriculture. The agreements were signed in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka on the sidelines of a virtual summit between Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. [Anadolu Agency]

As India is competing with China to deliver coronavirus vaccination to Bangladesh in a diplomatic offensive carefully choreographed to expand their influence [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1], New Delhi reassured Dhaka it would priorities the supply of COVID-19 shots to its South Asian neighbor. Moreover, the two leaders also restored a cross-border rail link snapped in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965. [The Straits Times] [Hindustan Times]

The virtual summit marked the first high-level meeting of the leaders since bilateral relations had nosedived after India passed its controversial religion-based citizenship law late last year [see AiR No. 2, January/2020, 2]. New Delhi has since been making overtures to smoothen relations with Dhaka, with the Indian foreign secretary visiting Bangladesh twice this year [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1, AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3].

India Prime Minister Modi accepts Britain’s invitation to be part of upcoming G7 meeting

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 16 accepted an invitation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to be part of the G7 meeting of leading industrialized nations. Earlier, the UK prime minister had written to India, Australia and South Korea asking them to attend the UK-hosted Group of Seven summit, scheduled for next summer. [South China Morning Post]

It also comes after Modi last month formally invited Johnson to be the chief guest at India’s 70th Republic Day celebrations next month, making him the first British PM since John Major in 1993 to attend the parade. The invitation was extended by Modi to Johnson during their phone conversation on November 27. [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2] 

While the Johnson’s trip to New Delhi was initially being described as a post-Brexit tilt to the Indo-Pacific, it now has become part of a plan to transform the G7 group into a broader grouping of 10 leading democracies capable of challenging China and other authoritarian states. While the idea behind a ‘D-10’ is not a novel one, it has a new impetus amid the coronavirus pandemic, chiming with US President-elect Joe Biden’s plan to hold a summit of democracies. [The Guardian]

India accelerates work on Chabahar Port, expecting incoming US administration to remove sanctions on Iran

(lm) India, Iran and Uzbekistan on December 14 held their first meeting of a trilateral meeting on joint use of Chabahar Port, a seaport located in southeastern Iran that is being increasingly seen as a fulcrum of connectivity to Afghanistan and central Asia. The three countries discussed the utilization of the port for trade and transit purposes as well as implementation of transit strategies for enhanced regional connectivity. [Hindustan Times]

Earlier in September, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh paid a short visit to Iran, on his way back from Moscow, where he attended the three-day meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2].

Touted as New Delhi’s answer to the Chinese-operated port of Gwadar in Pakistan [see e.g., AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2], Chabahar Port is being jointly developed by India, Iran and Afghanistan to boost trade ties among the three countries. Indian company India Ports Global took over the operations of the port in December 2018 and since then the company has handled 1.2 million tons of bulk cargo and about 8,200 containers. Located on Iran’s energy-rich southern coast, it is the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, and thus can be easily accessed from India’s western coast, bypassing Pakistan. Mindful of the importance of the port for shipping cargo and humanitarian assistance to war-torn Afghanistan, the United States exempted the multinational Chabahar Port project from its sanctions against Iran in 2018. 

Earlier this year, China and Iran were said to be in the final stages of approving a $400 billion economic and security deal, after Tehran proceeded with the construction of a rail link connecting Chabahar and Zahedan independently, citing delays in the proposed funding from India. Underscoring Beijing’s aim to expand its footprint in the Middle East, the proposed Chinese investment involves massive infrastructure investments, but also envisioned closer cooperation on defense and intelligence sharing, and is rumored to include discounts for Iranian oil.

According to analysts, however, Tehran may be continuous not to put all their eggs in the Chinese basket, especially amid signs that the US under Biden might re-engage with Tehran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and re-imposed crippling sanctions as part of a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran. However, President-elect Joe Biden in an interview last month said he would offer Tehran a ‘credible path back to diplomacy’, arguing that dealing with Tehran’s nuclear program was the best way to achieve stability in the region. [The EurAsian Times]

India in talks with Australia for free trade pact, says foreign minister

(lm) Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed talks on a possible trade deal with Australia following New Delhi’s exit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Canberra and New Delhi held nine rounds of talks on a trade deal between 2011 and 2015, before Australian Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in June agreed to restart negotiations. [The Straits Times] [South China Morning Post]

Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies – 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus the bloc`s five major trading partners Japan, China, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand – signed the RCEP last month, forming the world’s largest free trade bloc that excludes the United States. [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]

Originally a negotiating participant of the RCEP, New Delhi in November last year announced its withdrawal from the RCEP over fears the elimination of tariffs would make it difficult to protect domestic industries from China, whose low-priced exports are highly competitive in Indian markets [see AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1, AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2].

Jaishankar also said India and Australia would have ‘very strong defense ties’, adding that he hoped for strong trade cooperation. Last month, India, along with Australia, the United States and Japan conducted their largest joint naval exercises in over a decade [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. While the Malabar exercise was formally independent of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) consultation mechanisms, observers say Canberra’s participation after 13 years of absence is a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four countries in the face of China’s vast military and economic power in the region [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Separately, the Australia-India Strategic Research Fund (AISRF) is financing six new projects, ranging from farming technology to coronavirus detection, following a nearly $4 million investment by the Australian government. [NDTV]

India needs to build ‘dissuasive deterrence’ against China, says Chief of Defense staff

(lm) India’s Chief of Defense Staff, General Bipin Rawat, on December 11 said India will seek to engage with extra-regional powers and improve regional linkages to build ‘dissuasive deterrence’ against China’s attempts at establishing its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. Further elaborating, General Rawat said New Delhi will build on existing bilateral and multilateral mechanisms, including more training engagements with partner nations, while also retaining strategic autonomy in decision-making. [Tribune India] [Hindustan Times]

Context and timing of General Rawat’s remarks, made at the Global Dialogue Security summit on ‘Contesting the Indo-Pacific for Global Domination’, are noteworthy. Taking against the larger backdrop the protracted border stand-off with China [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], they come in a time when India is trying to strengthen strategic ties with neighboring countries such as Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. They also follow in the wake of a string of virtual engagements by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed at deepening political and economic ties with European nations [see e.g. AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Already, leading European powers nations Germany and France have unveiled strategies for the Indo-Pacific [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Separately, Indian Army Chief General Naravane from December 9 to December 14 proceeded on a visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, marking the first time an Indian Army Chief was visiting the UAE and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. [Anadolu Agency]

India, China deploy assault boats at Pangong Tso

(lm) While a breakthrough continues to elude diplomats and top military commanders alike, who are trying to resolve the months-long border stand-off, latest reports suggest that China is reinforcing its presence around the Pangong Tso by, deploying assault boats to the glacial lake. India, in turn, will also deploy boats with enhanced capabilities, including anti-ramming features, by next summer. [The EurAsian Times] [Swarajya]

Indian media reported earlier this month that China has not only dug its heels in Ladakh, but has also increased military activity on its side of the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere. In response to the developments, the Indian Navy deployed its elite Marine Commandos (MARCOS) near Pangong Tso, adding to India’s strength along the Line of Control (LoC). [AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]

West has policy to engage India in ‘anti-China games’, says Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov

(lm) While delivering a speech at a state-run think tank, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week created a geopolitical stir, claiming that India was being manipulated by Western countries into ‘anti-China games’ directed at undermining New Delhi’s partnership with Moscow. Reflecting Russia’s traditional suspicion of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a geographical and strategic construct, the foreign minister also asserted that the concept was aimed at disrupting existing regional structures by giving them a pronounced anti-China slant. [The Wire] 

The remarks sparked commentaries from irked observers who expressed concern at Moscow being oblivious ‘to the agency of India in shaping its own priorities’. In the same vein, New Delhi on December 11 pushed back against the Russian foreign minister’s stand, saying the country has an independent foreign policy based on its national interests. [Observer Research Foundation] [Hindustan Times]

While Lavrov in the past had criticized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States, his current remarks come in times of an ongoing military stand-off between India and China. In this context, it is worth recollecting that Russia, which provides more than 60 percent of India’s weaponry, has been nudging both countries to get back to the negotiating table [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. [South China Morning Post]

India-China ties significantly damaged, says India’s foreign minister, citing ‘Beijing’s dishonesty’

(lm) Addressing a webinar organized by the Lowy Institute, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said last week bilateral relations between New Delhi and Beijing are at the ‘most difficult phase’ in the last three to four decades. Putting the blame firmly on China, he said that Beijing had flouted bilateral agreements and mutually agreed norms that had hitherto allowed both sides to maintain peace.

Speaking against the larger backdrop of the continued border stand-off with China [see article this edition] Jaishankar blamed ‘Beijing’s dishonesty’ as the reason for massive troop deployment along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), adding that China has given India five differing explanations for its unprecedented military activity along the LAC. [Al Jazeera]

In remarks that clearly echoed accusations made by India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in September [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4], Jaishankar elaborated that relations between India and China had had problems since 1988, but were moving in a positive direction, because there was an understanding that both sides would maintain ‘peace and tranquillity’ along the border, despite having diverging perceptions of the LAC. [The Print]

Responding to Jaishankar’s statement, China on December 10 swiftly rejected the accusations, saying that ‘the responsibility totally lies with the Indian side’. [The Hindu]

India: Farmers intensify protests as deadlock over new farming laws continues

(lm) Leaders of protesting Indian farmers began a one-day hunger strike on December 14 against three new agricultural laws aimed at overhauling the food grain procurement and sale of produce [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. Stepping up pressure on the government to withdraw the legislation, tens of thousands of Indian farmers the previous day demonstrated near New Delhi after rejecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assurances that the laws would double farmers’ income. [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times 1]

At least 30 farmer unions are actively protesting against the new laws they say were introduced without consultation, demanding a complete rollback of the new laws. To break the deadlock between, the federal government on December 8 proposed some amendments to the new farm laws. However, the farmers rejected the proposal, and called for a one-day nationwide strike after days of blockading New Delhi [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [The Straits Times 2]

India, Nepal to form joint business forum to represent private sectors

(lm) Following in the heels of a number of high-level visits by Indian officials to Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], both countries on December 7 agreed to form a joint business forum to facilitate bilateral trade and business, and pledged to facilitate its first meeting by the first quarter of 2021. [The Kathmandu Post]

Meeting under the Nepal-India Intergovernmental Committee (IGC) led by the commerce secretaries of both countries, Nepal and India also agreed to amend a bilateral transit treaty in a bid to boost trade and connectivity. [myRepública]

India, Nepal to form joint business forum to represent private sectors

(lm) Following in the heels of a number of high-level visits by Indian officials to Nepal [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], both countries on December 7 agreed to form a joint business forum to facilitate bilateral trade and business, and pledged to facilitate its first meeting by the first quarter of 2021. [The Kathmandu Post]

Meeting under the Nepal-India Intergovernmental Committee (IGC) led by the commerce secretaries of both countries, Nepal and India also agreed to amend a bilateral transit treaty in a bid to boost trade and connectivity. [myRepública]

Pakistan, India among the top five most dangerous countries for practice of journalism in the world

(lm) A report published by the International Federation on Journalists (IFJ), the largest union worldwide representing journalists, listed Pakistan and India among the top five ‘most dangerous countries for practice of journalism in the world’. According to the White Paper, murders of journalists in Pakistan (138) and in India (116) have featured almost every year in the ‘journalists killed list’ since 1990, making up 40 percent of the total deaths in the Asia Pacific region. [IFJ]

Indian PM Modi invites British PM Johnson as chief guest for Republic Day celebrations

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has formally invited British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to be the chief guest at India’s 70th Republic Day celebrations next month, making him the first British PM since John Major in 1993 to attend the parade. The invitation was extended by Modi to Johnson during their phone conversation on November 27. [The Hindu]

The timing of the invitation is noteworthy, as the transition period for Brexit ends on December 31 and it’s almost certain that the United Kingdom will go for a ‘hard Brexit’ – a clean break from Europe which will entail the UK giving up membership of the EU’s single market, allowing it to trade freely with EU members without restrictions. To reduce the adverse effects of the economic disruption, the UK has been looking for trading opportunities elsewhere. In mid-November Prime Minister Johnson announced a major addition to the UK government’s ability to attract foreign investment, in the form of a newly established Office for Investment. Shortly thereafter, India and the UK held ministerial talks to review their progress towards a bilateral post-Brexit Enhanced Trade Partnership, which could lead to a free trade agreement in the future. [Hindustan Times]

To entice India’s neighbor Bangladesh into closer embrace, the UK has also proposed establishment of a UK-Bangladesh Trade and Investment Dialogue aimed at deepening the trading relationship between the two countries. A government to government (G2G) trade meeting between the two countries will be held in January. This comes after the British government last month announced that goods from Bangladesh will continue to relish duty-free access to the UK after the termination of the Brexit transition period. [The Daily Star] [Dhaka Tribune]

India plans Brahmaputra dam to offset Chinese construction upstream

(lm) India is considering to build a 10-gigawatt (GW) hydropower project in its remote eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, following reports that China was moving ahead with plans to build mega-hydropower plants and dams across the 2,900-kilometer Brahmaputra River, with work on the projects scheduled to take 15 years [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. [Al Jazeera]

Originating in the northern side of the Himalayas, the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river which flows through Tibet, India, and Bangladesh, making it a major river for irrigation and transportation in the region. While the projects are unlikely to break ground anytime soon, against the larger backdrop of the ongoing border stand-off, Beijing’s move has already caused trepidation in New Delhi. For both India and China, the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra presents a geopolitical opportunity, as damming the perennial river would result in water security in an era of unprecedented shifting climate patterns.

The strategically vulnerable Indian state of Assam and nearby regions border Tibet in the north and are connected to the rest of the country by the narrow Siliguri Corridor, also known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. Thus, India is concerned that Beijing may build a dam around a so-called ‘great bend’, where the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra curves southward before entering India and where the river gains substantial volume of water. [Asia Times]

India summons Canada envoy over PM Trudeau’s protest remarks

(lm) Speaking virtually to members of the Indian community in Canada to mark the 551st birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called images of the clashes ‘concerning’ and that Canada would ‘always be there to defend the rights of peaceful protest’. India on December 4 then summoned Canada’s High Commissioner to protest at the comments by PM Trudeau, warning that continued ‘interference’ in domestic affairs could harm bilateral relations. Indeed, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has already pulled out of the upcoming meeting of the Ministerial Coordination Group on COVID-19 scheduled to be held virtually next week. The meeting will be chaired by Canada. [Times Now News] [The Diplomat]

In Britain, which is home to a large Indian diaspora, thousands of people on December 6 converged on the Indian embassy, located in central London and groups marched around the Trafalgar Square area. Moreover, thirty-six British lawmakers from various parties – including some of Indian origin and others representing many constituents with links in the Indian state of Punjab – have written to British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, asking him to raise the issue of farmers’ agitation with the Narendra Modi government. [Reuters] [Hindustan Times]

India accuses China of helping rebel groups at Myanmar border

(lm) Indian officials accused China of supplying funds and weaponry to rebel groups that have stepped up attacks on its border with Myanmar in recent months, opening another front in the conflict between the two giants. The armed groups – including Myanmar’s largest and best-equipped ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) – are allegedly acting as Beijing’s proxies by supplying weapons and providing hideouts to insurgent groups in India’s north-eastern states, the so-called ‘seven stars’. [South China Morning Post 1]

Moreover, multiple security agencies warned the Indian government that at least four of India’s most wanted insurgent leaders were in the southern Chinese city of Kunming to train and source weapons as recently as mid-October. [The Straits Times]

While the direct or indirect support of armed ethnic groups, including the UWSA, gives Beijing leverage in all kinds of negotiations with Myanmar authorities, it has increasingly been considered as playing with fire in relation to at least two of Myanmar’s insurgent groups. In an implicit reference to Beijing, Myanmar’s commander-in-chief alleged in July that domestic terrorist groups were being backed by ‘strong forces’ outside the country. A military spokesperson later clarified that the army chief was referring to the fact that fighters from the Arakan Army (AA) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) had used Chinese-made weapons in a 2019 attack [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4].

Further, against the larger backdrop of the protracted border stand-off with India, China’s military has been carrying out training in the mountains of Tibet in an effort to get soldiers used to the region’s extreme conditions. In addition to high-altitude training, checkpoints along the Chinese border have been equipped with new surveillance gear, including observation cameras and drones. Latest developments come months after New Delhi had deployed its Special Frontier Force (SFF), a paramilitary unit consisting mainly of Tibetan and Gorkha paratroopers trained in mountain warfare, to the conflict zone [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2] [South China Morning Post 2]

Seeking the expansion of road width in a highway project adjacent to the Chinese border, India’s Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, told the Supreme Court (SC) that situation on the ground at the India-China border has changed significantly this year and it has become imperative that men and equipment should move swiftly from army stations to the frontier. [India Legal] [Hindustan Times]

Indian farmer’s protests prevail 

(lm) Indian farmer unions called for a one-day nationwide strike on December 8 after days of blockading New Delhi in a bid to force the government to repeal its new market-friendly agricultural laws many fear will damage their livelihoods [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. Tuesday’s strike, called Bharat Bandh, comes after five rounds of talks between farmers’ unions and the government failed. The sixth round of talks is scheduled for December 9. [Deutsche Welle]

Hundreds of thousands of farmers have camped near New Delhi since November 27, blocking entry into the capital [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. Moreover, clashes with police, who used tear gas, water cannons and baton charges to disperse demonstrators prompted expressions of concern from several political leaders in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. [The Guardian]

India: Third phase of local elections in Kashmir completed

(lm) Kashmiris on December 4 voted in the third out of eight phases of the first elections since the revocation of Article 370 and the subsequent bifurcation of the former state of Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. During the first phase, nearly 52 percent of the people voted on November 28, while the second round held on December 1 saw 49 percent voting amid tight security.[Al Jazeera]

Until December 22, nearly six million voters across the Jammu and Kashmir union territory’s 20 districts are eligible to elect 280 members of the newly created District Development Councils (DDC). While they are aimed at strengthening the system of local self-government of villages in the union territory, the DDC will have no power to legislate or amend laws in the region now directly run from New Delhi. Elections are also being held to fill over 12,000 vacant seats in panchayats (village councils) and more than 230 in urban local bodies. [AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]

In the run-up to the elections, the region’s two bitter rivals – the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had come together for the first time as part of People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) to contest the elections [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].

India: Government to held press responsible for content from foreign sources

(lm) The Press Council of India (PCI), a statutory body regulating print media in the country, on November 25 published a media advisory, saying that Indian newspapers must verify any extracts they publish from foreign publications. Declaring that ‘unregulated circulation of the foreign content is not desirable’, the advisory body further warned that the ‘reporter, publisher and editor of such newspaper shall be responsible for the contents irrespective of the source from which it is received’. [The Wire] [The Straits Times]

With Indian media facing pressure to report favorably on the government’s policies, officials often chafe at critical reports in foreign publications. Noting that many Indian newspapers license and reproduce reports and analysis from international publications such as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal and The Economist, the Editors Guild of India urged the PCI to withdraw its ‘ominous-sounding’ advisory, saying it would have disturbing implications. [The Hindu]

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made several rules to restrict foreign journalists and publications in India already. For instance, just four days after online news portals and over-the-top (OTT) content providers such as Netflix had been brought within its purview [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4], the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) issued a notification asking the companies to comply with the 26 percent cap on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sanctioned last year. This has made operations difficult for several foreign publications running India branches, and is expected to be the reason behind the closure of HuffPost India earlier last week. [Scroll.in]

India test-fires anti-ship supersonic cruise missile

(lm) While its troops remain battle-ready, facing Chinese forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, India on December 1 test-fired an anti-ship version of its BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. Days earlier, a land-attack version of BrahMos was test-fired from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands territory. [Hindustan Times]

Since July, India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has succeeded in testing multiple missiles [see e.g. AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4, AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. In October, the DRDO had successfully tested an ‘extended range’ variant of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile off the coast of Balasore in Odisha [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

Maldives foreign minister meets Indian and Chinese envoys

(lm) The Maldives foreign minister and finance minister on November 30 met with China’s envoy to the Maldives to talk about economic recovery and development cooperation. Earlier this month, Beijing agreed to defer repayment for loans which were secured via state-owned companies. [Raajje]

In a fresh effort to normalizing ties with Maldives, a country that has habitually oscillated its support between India and China in recent years, India’s High Commissioner to the Maldives met with the country’s foreign minister on December 1. Traditionally, India is considering the Maldives part of its strategic backyard. [Raajje]

Ongoing talks between China and the Maldives come at a time, when Male is estimated to have accumulated $1.5 billion in debt to Beijing, equivalent to 45 percent of the island nation’s national debt. China has already reduced this year’s loan repayment to $75 million from the scheduled $100 million under the G20 ‘Debt Service Suspension Initiative’, and agreed to partially suspend debt repayment applicable to $600 million in loans for a period of approximately four years [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

To counter China ’s growing financial footprint in South Asia, New Delhi has provided a host of support measures to the Indian Ocean archipelago in the past [see e.g. AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3, AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4], having injected more than $2 billion trough loans, grants, credit lines and currency swaps. Most recently, both countries last week participated in the 4th National Security Adviser (NSA)-level meeting on Maritime Security Cooperation [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. [Nikkei Asia Review]

Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) adopts resolution on Kashmir conflict

(lm) Pakistan on November 28 announced that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) had unanimously adopted a resolution at its 47th session of Council of Foreign Ministers, reaffirming its ‘strong support’ for Islamabad on the Kashmir issue, and calling on India to rescind the abrogation of the contested territory. Further, the OIC denounced the use of pellet guns by Indian troops in India-held Kashmir and urged New Delhi to respect the international human rights laws, according to the statement. [Dawn 1] [The EurAsian Times]

In August last year, India unilaterally abrogated Article 370 of its constitution, breaking the state of Kashmir into two union territories – one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu and Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. The resolution came as a surprise, because the official agenda of the Niamey meeting made no specific mention of Kashmir. A diplomatic source had separately said that this time the OIC Contact Group on Kashmir would not meet either, because the hosts declined a Pakistani request for a meeting on the pretext of the COVID-19 pandemic. [Dawn 2] [Dawn 3]

The unanimous resolution comes despite some recent disunity among major Islamic countries, especially after ties between Islamabad and Riyadh had remained strained over what Pakistani diplomats called ‘unfulfilled expectations’. In August, Pakistan’s foreign minister Qureshi expressed frustration over the inaction of the OIC on the Kashmir issue, insisting that the international organization was not doing enough to pressure India on it. Calling again on Saudi Arabia, which is considered the most influential member of the OIC, to convene a special meeting of its Council of Foreign Ministers – a request that was initially turned down in February – Qureshi threatened to bypass the OIC, saying that Islamabad was willing to proceed ‘with or without’ support from Riyadh [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2].

Shortly thereafter, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa met with Saudi Arabian officials to sooth the waters [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3], after Riyadh had withdrew a $1 billion interest-free loan, and further demanded another $1 billion. In October, then, Qureshi and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud held a telephonic conversation to further ease frictions in their relationship [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2].

Against the backdrop of remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1], the OIC also unanimously adopted a Pakistan-sponsored resolution urging the UN Secretary General to initiate a global dialogue to counter rising Islamophobia and promote interfaith harmony. [Dawn 4]

Pakistan, India hand dossiers to UN bodies, accusing each other of ‘stoking terrorism’

(lm) Pakistan has handed over a dossier to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres accusing India of stoking ‘terrorism’ in Pakistan. Further, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in a letter to both the president of the UN Security council (UNSC) and the secretary general alleged ‘gross and systematic violations of human rights’ in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. [Dawn]

Earlier this month, Pakistan said it had compiled a dossier with evidence that Indian intelligence agencies were funding the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and ethnic Baloch armed separatist groups that conducted attacks from Afghan soil, aimed at destabilizing Pakistan and undermining its economic partnership with China. The exchange of such allegations between the two South Asian countries is common, but the heightened level of detail and specificity of this round of Pakistan’s accusations was unprecedented in recent history. [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]

Last week, then, India summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat over what New Delhi said was a foiled attack in the frontier territory of Jammu and Kashmir by a Pakistan-based militant group, a charge Islamabad firmly denied [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4]. On November 23, New Delhi provided a dossier to five permanent UNSC members about the attempted attack, accusing Islamabad of giving material support to the militants fighting its rule in Muslim majority Kashmir. [Al Jazeera] [Reuters]

India, Sri Lanka strengthen trade, security ties

(lm) India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval concluded a three-day visit to Colombo on November 29 after meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to discuss trade, new investments and security amid plans to bolster bilateral ties between the two countries. [Arab News]

The trip marked Doval’s second official visit to Colombo this year, after he visited the island nation in January — on the heels of President Rajapaksa’s resounding election victory in 2019 — and held discussions on strengthening military ties [see AiR No. 3, January/2020, 3]. It also is the latest in a series of visits by top foreign officials to Colombo, first by a high-powered Chinese delegation early in October [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2], and later by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

Doval on Friday took part in the 4th National Security Adviser (NSA)-level meeting on Maritime Security Cooperation, a trilateral forum with defense ministers from the Maldives and Sri Lanka, with officials from Mauritius and Seychelles attending virtually. The trilateral forum had been revived after a six-year gap to expand the scope of intelligence sharing, including terrorism and cybersecurity, based on ‘common security threats’, according to a statement published afterwards. [Sri Lanka Ministry of Defence] [The Hindu]

Before, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated President Rajapaksa over the phone on the first anniversary of assumption of Office. Reiterating New Delhi’s commitment to support Colombo’s fight against the COVID 19 pandemic, Modi also expressed confidence that the full potential of the bilateral relationship will be realized. [ColomboPage]

Indian Foreign Minister visits Nepal

(lm) Indicating a thaw in bilateral relations between Kathmandu and New Delhi, India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited Nepal on November 26-27, marking his first trip to the neighboring country since assuming office in January this year. The visit assumes added significance because it precedes a visit of Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe. Still, meetings with Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and Foreign Secretary Pradeep Gyawali focused on relatively lower-hanging fruits such as infrastructure development and connectivity projects. [The Diplomat] [The Kathmandu Post] [The Hindu] [Hindustan Times]

While China and India are currently engaged in heightened border tensions in the Himalayas [see e.g. AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2], bilateral ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu had been strained over border-related issues since last November. For months, the diplomatic gap between the two countries widened further after New Delhi in May had announced the inauguration of a new Himalayan link road built through the disputed area of Kalapani that lies at a strategic three-way junction with Tibet and China [see e.g. AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3, AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. At that time, Indian observers had urged their government not to burn all the bridges between Kathmandu and New Delhi, arguing the dispute would push Nepal closer to China.

Resuming dialogue in August, Prime Minister Oli had laid the groundwork for his reformed India outreach, calling Indian Prime Minister Modi on the occasion of India’s 74th Independence Day [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3], and stopping the distribution of a new text book that included the country’s revised political map. Last month, the Samant Goel, head of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) – India’s principal external intelligence service – made a trip to Nepal, piquing the curiosity of Indian analysts [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Shortly thereafter, Indian Army Chief General Naravane also visited Kathmandu, meeting with Nepal’s political and military leadership [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].

India bans 43 more Chinese mobile apps, citing cybersecurity concerns

(lm) India, which has banned more than 175 apps with links to neighboring China in recent months [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2, AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5], has banned another 43 such apps, including some from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group. Like with the previous orders, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology cited cybersecurity concerns to pull the apps from its domestic market. [The Times of India] [The Indian Express]

Tensions between India and China escalated after more than 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a military clash in the Himalayas in June [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3]. Ever since, anti-China sentiment has soared in India and sparked calls for a boycott of goods from the neighboring country. In April, India also introduced stricter governmental vetting procedures for foreign investments, requiring Chinese investors – who have ploughed billions of dollars into Indian startups in recent years — to take government approval before they could write new checks to Indian firms [see AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3]. The move has significantly reduced Chinese investors’ presence in Indian startups’ deal flows in the months since. [TechCrunch]

However, Beijing not only remains New Delhi’s biggest trading partner, but imports from China have actually increased in the months since Prime Minister Modi announced the stimulus package for the domestic economy in May. Against this backdrop, China on November 25 urged India to restore bilateral trade relations ‘for mutual benefit and win-win results on the basis of dialogue and negotiation’. [South China Morning Post] [The Hindu]

Instead of disengaging, China is fortifying defenses across LAC, according to Indian media

(lm) Notwithstanding periodic hopes for a resolution to the Ladakh standoff, Indian media suggest that China has not only dug its heels in Ladakh, but has also increased military activity on its side of the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere. [The Diplomat] [The Economic Times]

While both sides were considering a reciprocal disengagement plan for the North Bank of Pangong Tso [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3], China has reinforced its troops and rapidly strengthened road infrastructure on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), stationed container housing modules across all the friction points and turned a village located in close proximity to the LAC into a major army supply depot. [Hindustan Times]

Indian NDTV alleges further that China has also continued with construction activities near the crucial tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan. Moreover, the Chinese army has reportedly set up a village more than two kilometers within Bhutanese territory, and built a road in the same area. The plateau is of strategic importance to Delhi because it overlooks the Siliguri corridor, known as the ‘chicken’s neck’, a narrow strip of land that connects India’s north-eastern states – the seven stars – with the rest of the country. India fears that in any future conflict, Chinese troops could seize the corridor. [NDTV]

In response to the developments, the Indian Navy has deployed its elite Marine Commandos (MARCOS) near Pangong Tso, adding to India’s strength along the Line of Control (LoC). Considering that Indian Air Force and Army have been deployed since the hostilities began in the region seven months ago, experts say the latest deployment is also aimed at enhancing the operational capabilities of the newly formed tri-service Armed Forces Special Operations Division (AFSOD). It comes months after New Delhi has deployed its Special Frontier Force (SFF), a paramilitary unit consisting mainly of Tibetan and Gorkha paratroopers trained in mountain warfare, to the conflict zone [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [The EurAsian Times]

The geopolitical politicization of science in COVID-19 times? – Chinese scientists suggest COVID came from the Indian Subcontinent 

(dql) A recent preprint by Chinese scientists is criticized in [The Print] by Sumaiya Shaikh, an Australian-Swedish neuroscientist with Indian ties, according to whom the Chinese authors suggest that the origins of SARS-CoV-2 may not be in China, but in the Indian subcontinent, coming via Australia before making its way into China. The article sheds light on the ongoing politicization of science amid the COVID-19 pandemic which is manifest not only in relations between US and Australia on the one hand and China on the other.

India: Two senior leaders of Congress party die of COVID-19 related complications

(lm) Ahmed Patel, a legislator of India’s Congress party (INC) died of multi-organ failure on Wednesday. Patel, who was diagnosed with COVID-19 a month ago served as party treasurer and was seen as close to the Gandhi family who leads the party. [Al Jazeera]

Earlier this week, another Congress veteran, Tarun Gogoi, died of health complications after contracting the virus in the northeastern state of Assam, where he had been the chief minister for 15 years. [The Hindu]

India: Farmers protest in New Delhi against deregulation legislation

(lm) Thousands of farmers blocked major roads in and around New Delhi over the weekend to protest against agricultural legislation they said could devastate crop prices, while the government sought talks with their leaders. Many farmers had traveled on their tractors and motorcycles from the country’s two breadbasket states, Punjab and Haryana, vowing to camp in the Indian capital until the government amends the recent laws. On November 27, the protesters were allowed to enter New Delhi after a day of clashes with police, who used tear gas, water cannons and baton charges to push them back. [Associated Press] [The Wall Street Journal] 

As part of the contentious reforms, farmers will be allowed to directly enter into selling agreements with agricultural businesses, supermarket chains, online grocers as well as exporter. Most Indian farmers currently sell the majority of their produce at government-controlled wholesale markets at assured floor prices. The government has, therefore, also insisted that it would still purchase staples such as rice and wheat at a Minimum Support Price (MSP), a government fixed benchmark designed to incentivize the farmers and thus ensure adequate food grains production in the country. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 30 strongly defended the new legislation. Speaking at a public rally during a visit to his political constituency of Varanasi in northern India, he dismissed the fears as misplaced, saying the new legislation would bring about much needed reform that will introduce transparency, accelerate growth and attract private investment in supply chains. [The Times of India] [The Straits Times]

Philippines, India to cooperate in maritime defense

(nd) In a recent interview, India’s Ambassador to the Philippines emphasized his country’s commitment to fight terrorism by widening cooperation in maritime defense. The envoy referred to India’s efforts to set up a coastal surveillance system and emphasized the necessity to set up infrastructure to protect the Philippines’ coastline of 36,000 kilometers.

In October,  Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and the Indian Navy signed an agreement to enhance their cooperation and to strengthen security “through the sharing of information on nonmilitary and non-government shipping vessels between the Philippines and India.”  As well as India, the Philippines were a target for terrorist attacks, most recently with the bombing in Jolo, Sulu in August 2020. [Manila Times]

China to build a major dam on Brahamputra river, raising red flags in India and Bangladesh

(lm) China is moving ahead with plans to build a hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangbo (Brahmaputra River) in Tibet, raising concerns that in neighboring India and Bangladesh. A proposal has been made in the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), which was endorsed by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in November [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1], and is earmarked to be implemented from next year. [Global Times] [The Times of India]

Originating in the northern side of the Himalayas, the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river which flows through Tibet, India and Bangladesh, making it a major river for irrigation and transportation in the region. Against the larger backdrop of the ongoing border stand-off with India [see article in this edition], the project has come under intense scrutiny, because it is likely to have an impact on the two lower riparian states, India and Bangladesh. Hence, for both India and China, the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra presents a geopolitical opportunity as damming the perennial river would result in water security in an era of unprecedented shifting climate patterns. [The Indian Express]

To ensure water security, China has claimed express ownership over Tibet’s waters, making it an upstream controller of seven of South Asia’s mightiest rivers – the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Yangtze, and Mekong. China’s dam constructions have come under criticism for contributing to recent droughts that have severely damaged agriculture and depleted fish stocks in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. [Hindustan Times]

In August, talks between Bangladesh and China on a loan deal to implement a proposed irrigation project on the Teesta River had entered an advanced stage, leaving flat India which had hitherto initiated a series of measures to regain long-standing good relations with its eastern neighbor [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]. Later this year, Beijing then signed an agreement with the Mekong River Commission (MRC) – an intergovernmental organization of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, pledging to share year-round and current data on water flows of the Mekong [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Asian countries divided over UN death penalty moratorium

(dql) In a poll on a resolution which calls for a moratorium on the use of capital punishment eleven countries from the Asia-Pacific region were among the 39 countries which voted against the resolution in the Third Committee of the United Nations General Assembly. They include Afghanistan, Brunei Darussalam, China, India, Japan, the Maldives, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, and Tonga.

120 countries voted for the resolution, including over 15 Asia-Pacific countries. Among them are Sri Lanka and the Philippines. 24 countries abstained from the vote. Asia-Pacific countries among these are Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. [Human Rights Watch]

Philippines, India, Russia to reach missile deal early next year

(nd) The Philippine government might sign an agreement for the purchase of the Indian built BrahMos cruise missile. With an initial expression of interest late 2019, the pandemic seems to have delayed the purchase, which is likely to take place early 2021 as part of the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) modernization program.

BrahMos is part of BrahMos Aerospace, a joint venture between India and Russia, which was set up in 1998, and can be launched from both land and air. Apart from the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia have expressed interest to purchase the BrahMos cruise missile. The missile could be used to protect Filipino claims in the disputed South China Sea and deter China from further aggression. India and the Philippines have earlier agreed to intensify both countries’ military and maritime cooperation, in light of regional conflicts. [The Diplomat]

India summons Pakistani diplomat over foiled terrorist attack

(lm) India has summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat over what New Delhi said was a foiled attack this week in the frontier territory of Jammu and Kashmir by a Pakistan-based militant group, a charge Islamabad firmly denied. [The Straits Times]

On November 19, four members of the Pakistan-based terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) were killed in a gun battle with Indian security forces in the Jammu district of the Jammu and Kashmir union territory. JeM’s primary motive is to separate Kashmir from India and merge it into Pakistan through attacks on security and government targets. In February 2019, the group claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed 40 Indian soldiers in the Indian-administered Kashmir town of Pulwama, the worst such attack on Kashmiri soil [see AiR (3/2/2019), AiR (4/2/2019)]. [The Hindu]

Earlier this month, Pakistan said it had compiled a dossier with evidence that India was sponsoring ‘terrorist’ activities from Afghan soil, aimed at destabilizing the country and undermining its economic partnership with China. [AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]

In separate developments, an Indian soldier was killed and another wounded by Pakistani shelling along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir between the two nuclear-armed rivals. Earlier this month, Pakistani and Indian troops exchanged fire across the highly-militarized frontier, leaving 12 people dead, including three Indian and one Pakistani soldier, and wounding at least 36 on both sides. The fatalities were some of the highest reported in recent years [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [Japan Times]

Quad members conclude 24th edition of Malabar exercise

(lm) The latest iteration of the Malabar exercise concluded on Friday with a second phase being held from November 17 to 20 in the norther Arabian Sea. The first phase took place from November 3 to 6 off the coast of Vishakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal. [The Times of India]

The exercise was the first for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States, since the grouping’s reconvening in November 2017 [see AiR November/2017, 4, AiR November/2017, 3]. While the Malabar exercise was formally independent of the Quad consultation mechanisms, observers say Canberra’s participation after 13 years of absence is a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four countries in the face of China’s assertiveness [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Following on the heels, the Indian Navy from November 18 to 22 conducted a Coordinated Patrol (CORPAT) with the Royal Thai Navy in the Andaman Sea. The navies of both countries have been carrying out CORPAT along their International Maritime Boundary Line twice a year since 2005, with the aim of keeping this vital part of the Indian Ocean safe and secure for commercial shipping and international trade. [The Hindu]

Just days later, the navies of both countries together with the Republic of Singapore Navy from November 21 to 22 conducted the second iteration of their trilateral maritime SITMEX-20 exercise in Andaman Sea. Hosted by the Indian Navy, the first edition of SITMEX, which included a shore phase at Port Blair and a sea phase in the Andaman Sea, was conducted in September 2019 [see AiR No. 39, September/2019, 4]. [India Today] [Hindustan Times]

Indian PM Modi calls US President-elect Joe Biden to discuss strategic ties

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held his first phone conversation with US President-elect Joe Biden to congratulate him and reaffirm India’s commitment to a strategic partnership between the two countries. Modi had initially sent his congratulations to Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris just hours after the former was declared president-elect. [The Straits Times] [Al Jazeera 1]

Stepping up the Trump administration’s anti-China message in India, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Defense chief Mark Esper visited New Delhi a week ahead of the US’s November 3 presidential election. During the two-day visit, India had signed on to the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which commits both countries to provide reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensor [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

India enjoys a strong and growing relationship with the US, with five US presidents (Republican and Democrat) visiting the South Asian nation in the last 10 years. In the same vein, US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who was visiting New Delhi a week earlier, also touched on the then-upcoming US presidential election, saying that any possible outcome was unlikely to affect deepening US-ties with New Delhi because ‘this relationship is much bigger than any one political party.’ [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]

Modi’s swift welcome of the new US leaders comes amid concerns among Indian foreign policy experts who say the prime minister had in the past come dangerously close to endorsing Trump’s candidature, which they said could hurt India’s prospects under a Democratic administration. While New Delhi enjoys cross-party support in Washington, Democratic lawmakers have increasingly voiced concern about human rights under the Hindu nationalist Modi, including his championing of the Hindu nationalist citizenship law and revocation of autonomy in Muslim-majority Kashmir [see e.g. AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4]. Still, India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) maintains that the issue of Kashmir and the citizenship law are internal matters that will not impact US-India ties. Analysts therefore say US-Indian relations will continue to see an upward trajectory, albeit with nuanced changes, as Washington wants New Delhi as a key partner in efforts to push back against China. [Al Jazeera 2] [South China Morning Post]

Addressing the BRICS summit, Indian PM Modi calls terrorism the biggest problem confronting the world

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Modi on November 17 addressed a virtual summit of the five-nation BRICS grouping focusing on terrorism and post-pandemic economic recovery. In his remarks, Modi touched upon cooperation in public health and the need for reforms of the UN Security Council and global bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). India will be holding the BRICS chairmanship next year, which also marks the 15th anniversary of the grouping. [The New Indian Express]

Addressing the summit after Russian President Vladimir Putin, Modi said that terrorism was the biggest problem facing the world today, adding that there was a need to ensure that countries that shelter terrorists must also be blamed. Read between the lines, the remarks were a clear nod to China, which has repeatedly shielded Pakistan from international censure for sponsoring cross-border terrorism in India and Afghanistan. [One India]

A case in point was the virtual meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) held in October to decide whether to keep Pakistan in on the groupings Compliance Document, also known as ‘grey’ monitoring list. In the run-up to the meeting, India had mounted a determined effort to hold Pakistan responsible for its role in supporting terrorism and terrorist infrastructure. Although Islamabad was yet to report total compliance with the FATF’s 27-point action plan, China tried their best during the meeting to support Pakistan’s poor performance [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Against this backdrop, it is worth taking a closer look at the role of Russia, which holds the rotating SCO presidency this year and also hosted the BRICS summit. As close observers of the high-altitude border standoff attest, Moscow continues to play an important though discreet role in bringing India and China to the negotiating table. In part, this is because India’s dependence on Russia weaponry is deep enough for New Delhi to be not able to offend Russian sensibilities directly [see e.g. AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4 AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5].

At the BRICS summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country was ready to cooperate with its BRICS partners in the manufacturing and distribution of the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine. The Russian Direct Investment Fund, which bankrolled the development of the anti-coronavirus vaccine, has agreements with India and Brazil to conduct trials of the jab, as well as manufacturing agreements with pharmaceutical companies in India and China to produce it, the Russian leader added. [Associated Press] [The Moscow Times]

At G20, Indian PM Modi focuses on green politics

(lm) In his speech at the opening session of the G20 summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 22 called for a new ‘global index’ for the post-coronavirus world which would, inter alia, incorporate a strong emphasis on a sustainable use of resources. Further elaborating on the issue, Modi later said that India was the only country on track among the G20 nations to keep what it had promised under the 2015 Paris Agreement – unlike China, the United States and the European Union. [The Times of India] [Scroll.in]

India’s track record of being the only ‘2 degree Celsius compatible’ country was confirmed in a report released on November 18 by Climate Transparency, an international partnership of 14 research and non-governmental organizations, which showed that the other 19 leading and emerging economies were far from achieving their goals. India’s headline pledge under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is to reduce the emissions intensity by 33-35 percent over the 2005 levels by 2030. [Deutsche Welle]

Still, the report also noted that India continues to be not on track for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree Celsius pathway – a target which gained momentum in 2018 after the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report showing how the 2-degree Celsius goal (keeping the global average temperature rise within 2 degree Celsius by 2100 from the pre-industrial level) would be devastating for the planet. [Climate Transparency]

It was further announced that India will be hosting the G20 summit in 2023 — a year later than previously planned. [Deccan Herald]

India: Comedian likely to face contempt of court proceedings for publishing jokes about Supreme Court

(lm) Indian comedian Kunal Kamra may face jail term after the Attorney-General (AG) green-lighted petitions accusing Kamra of criminal contempt of court for his tweets about a Supreme Court (SC) decision. The Indian Contempt of Courts Act criminalizes any speech which ‘scandalizes’ or ‘lowers the authority of’ any court, or interferes with judicial proceedings. Anyone found guilty could face imprisonment for up to six months. [The Straits Times]

In a tweet published on November 11, Kamra suggested that the SC had given preferential treatment to Arnab Goswami, a TV news anchor and supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Goswami had been arrested on November 4 for alleged abetment of suicide. Within a week of his arrest, petitions for his bail were heard by the sessions court, the high court and the SC on a priority basis. While the lower courts dismissed his pleas, the apex court, which took an out-of-turn hearing of Goswami’s bail plea, granted him interim bail after hearing his petition via video conference. [The Wire]

A day after the AG consented to initiating contempt proceedings against Kamra, the comedian released an open letter on social media in which he refused to apologize for and to retract his statement. On November 20, then, the AG gave his consent for another round of contempt proceedings against Kamra for a second tweet. [The Hindu 1] [The Tribune] [National Herald]

Interestingly, the AG declined consent earlier this month to initiate contempt proceedings against the Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh and his principal advisor for making allegations against a judge of the SC and some other judges of the state high court. [The Print]

Against this backdrop, the parliamentary panel charged with examining the Data Protection Bill on November 19 invited representatives of Twitter to clarify on the company’s policy regarding the suspension and removal of user accounts and tweets. After the meeting, Committee chairperson Meenakshi Lekhi – a BJP lawmaker – said that Twitter’s explanation on banning handles and tweets was inadequate. [The Hindu 2] [The Times of India]

Taking place against the larger political confrontation between the parties, the meeting also triggered a Twitter row between Lekhi and opposition politician Shashi Tharoor over the mandate of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Personal Data Protection Bill. Tharoor is also chairman of the ‘Parliamentary Committee on Information Technology’, which in August had summoned representatives of social media giant Facebook to report on allegations of deliberate omissions, inaction and political bias while dealing with online hate-speech in India [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3]. [MediaNama]

India: Streaming services now within the ambit of government control

(lm) In a first step to regulate content on digital media, the central government has issued an order bringing online news portals and over-the-top (OTT) content providers such as Netflix under the authority of the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB). News on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram will also come within the ministry’s ambit, according to a gazette notification published on November 11. [Al Jazeera] [Hindustan Times]

While electronic media in India is regulated by the Cable Television Networks (Regulation) Act of 1995, digital content hitherto effectively slipped under the legal radar. In October 2019, the government had indicated that it will issue ‘negative’ lists of don’ts’ for video streaming services like Netflix and Hotstar. It also wanted the platforms to come up with a self-regulatory body on the lines of the News Broadcasting Standards Authority. Anticipating the government’s intervention, 15 live-streaming platforms came together under the aegis of the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) in mid-September to sign a code of self-regulation, formulating a framework for age classification, appropriate content description and access control. The MIB, however, rejected the code. [The Hindu]

The new legislation comes at a time when lawmakers in India are trying to find the balance between pre-censorship and ex-ante regulation. In a case in point, the Home Minister of the state of Madhya Pradesh on November 22 asked police to investigate after a member of the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) objected to scenes in a Netflix series, in which a Hindu girl kisses a Muslim boy against the backdrop of a Hindu temple. [The Straits Times] [The Print]

India: Regional parties to contest local polls in Jammu & Kashmir union territory, checkmating ruling BJP

(lm) In a first since the revocation of Article 370 and the subsequent bifurcation of the former state of Kashmir [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1], elections will be held in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory. From November 28 to December 22, the newly created District Development Councils (DDCs) will go to the polls in eight phases. Along with 280 DDC seats, election will be held to fill over 12,000 vacant seats in panchayats (village councils) and more than 230 in urban local bodies. [Hindustan Times]

Aimed at strengthening the system of local self-government of villages in the union territory, the DDCs are set to become a new unit of governance in Jammu and Kashmir. Every district in Jammu and Kashmir will be divided into 14 territorial constituencies to elect members of the body in the maiden DDC elections. A legislation to this effect was brought in by the central government earlier this year, amending the Jammu and Kashmir’s Panchayati Raj Act, 1989. [The Indian Express 1]

In a surprise move, six constituents of the recently formalized ‘The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration’ (PAGD) [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3] announced the alliance would contest the elections. The PAGD’s decision assumes added significance when considering that the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), both founding members of the conglomerate, had boycotted regional polls held in 2018 to protest the abrogation of Article 370. In May, the NC had even pulled out of the Delimitation Commission, which was set up to redraw parliamentary and assembly constituencies of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Jammu and Kashmir, and accused the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of seeking to divide the union territory on religious lines by manufacturing a Hindu dominance in the Kashmir valley [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [India Today]

Observers therefore put particular emphasis on the dilemma faced by the regional parties which had to decide whether they would officially boycott the polls and risk getting further marginalized or accept the elections without resistance and ended up legitimizing the unilateral abrogation [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Lending further credence to the argument that the BJP was expecting a political landscape void of competitors, the Minister of Home Affairs called the PAGD an ‘unholy global gang’, accusing its members of hobnobbing with foreign players. [The Hindu 1] [The Hindu 2] [The Print]

In the run-up to the election, the central government has issued orders to move an additional 25,000 security personnel to Jammu and Kashmir. But what is more, leaders and candidates of the PAGD allege that while candidates of the ruling BJP are allowed to canvass voters, candidates of the alliance are being whisked away by police to ‘cluster accommodations’ due to a perceived threat to their lives, leaving their movement and ability to campaign severely restricted. [The Indian Express 2] [The Wire]

India: BJP-led alliance retains power in Bihar state election

(lm) Defying exit poll predictions, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has retained power in India’s first election held amid the coronavirus pandemic, winning 125 out of the 243 assembly constituencies in the state of Bihar, three above the halfway mark of 122. The opposition alliance Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), managed to secure 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the single-largest party in the House with 75 seats. [The Times of India]

Bihar remains the only big state in India’s sprawling and politically febrile Hindi Belt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not won on its own. The party has been in power for more than a decade as a junior partner in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) party (JD-U), a party led by Bihar’s hitherto Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. In this state election, the BJP won 74 seats, while the JD-U managed to get 43 seats. Having eclipsed its regional ally, the BJP is expected to replace the JD-U as the senior partner in the ruling coalition. [Zee News]

India’s third-most populous state, Bihar accounts for 40 seats in the 545-member lower house of federal parliament, giving it outsize national influence and making it a key electoral battleground. Analysts say that the election results clearly show that Modi’s popularity had not diminished during the pandemic and instead has given a boost to the BJP, which has been struggling to win state elections over the past four years [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. [The Straits Times]

ASEAN signs RCEP, biggest trade agreement globally

(nd) The 37th ASEAN Summit concluded past Sunday with some 30 declarations, statements, plan-of-actions and summaries, covering a wide range of issues including stalled connectivity initiatives, environmental concerns, regional trade and integration, multilateral security frameworks, among others.

A dominant issue at the Summit was a joint response to the COVID-19 pandemic where cooperation initiatives were announced and put into operation, including the ASEAN COVID-19 Response Fund, the Regional Reserve of Medical Supplies, the ASEAN Standard Operating Procedures in response to Public Health Emergencies and the ASEAN Centre for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases. [Vietnam Investment Review] [Malay Mail]

Opening the Summit, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc addressed the South China Sea issue, commenting ASEAN member states were not “drawn into the maelstroms” of the US-Chinese rivalry yet, but challenges to multilateral systems remain urgent.

At the sidelines of the Summit, the ASEAN member states along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), resulting in the world’s biggest trade agreement [See also AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4], covering around 30% of the global GDP. India pulled out last year. The agreement will rather focus on trade and the practicalities of commerce, foreseeably to the detriment of labor and environmental issues.

Following a retreat from the region and uncertainties caused by an erratic foreign policy, the US engagement was put into question for a long time, enabling China to enhance its position. President-elect Joe Biden is expected to continue Barack Obama’s stance on Asia and make it a pivotal region of the US foreign policy. [South China Morning Post 1] [Radio Free Asia]

The trade deal puts China in a comfortable position in the region, with the possibility to shape it according to its rules, solidifying China’s geopolitical agenda together with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).The Trump administration was represented by National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien who stressed the importance ASEAN-US ties in times of the global pandemic. [South China Morning Post 2] [9News]

Malaysia’s prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said he respects India’s decision but noted India was a strategic partner for ASEAN, and their trade volume increased, with India being the sixth largest trading partner. In order to facilitate trade, the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) was proposed, which is being reviewed currently. [Bernama]

India, Pakistan report deadly violence along disputed Kashmir border

(lm) In one of this year’s deadliest days along the heavily militarized Line of Control (LoC) separating India and Pakistan, at least 10 civilians and five security personnel were killed in cross-border shelling on November 13. Hundreds of villagers were moved away from the LoC in Indian-controlled territory, while Pakistani officials said dozens of homes were set ablaze by Indian shelling on their side. [Al Jazeera]

According to Indian officials, the barrage of mortars and other weapons along several parts of the de facto border began after troops from the Indian army foiled an infiltration attempt from Pakistan in northern Kashmir. Pakistan’s military, in turn, said in a statement it had responded to unprovoked and indiscriminate firing by the Indian army. [Daily Sabah] [South China Morning Post]

The new peak in tensions came only weeks after Pakistan summoned a senior Indian diplomat to lodge a formal protest over recent ceasefire violations by Indian forces along LoC, resulting in serious injuries of two civilians. [AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]

India, France work towards stealth submarine deal

(lm) Coming on the heels of a series of missile tests and the commissioning of a stealth corvette [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4], the Indian Navy launched on November 12 its fifth Kalvari-class attack submarine. [The Times of India]

The submarine is part of New Delhi’s Project 75, which entails the construction of a total of six attack submarines designed by French defense contractor Naval Group (formerly known as DCNS) and manufactured by India’s by Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) in Mumbai. Two of these submarines were commissioned in 2017 and 2019, respectively, two are currently undergoing sea trials, while the last one is still under construction. Signed in 2005, the contracts also include technology transfers from the French company to its Indian partners.

French arms producers are increasingly gaining ground as second deal for French submarines might not be far behind, Nikkei Asia Review reported. Accordingly, a meeting was held in September between the French Defense Minister Florence Parly and her Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh to discuss, inter alia, a tender by French shipbuilder Naval Group to deliver six stealth submarines under Project 75I, a follow-on of Project 75. The deal, expected to be finalized sometime next year, is valued at $5.6 billion. [The EurAsian Times 1] [Nikkei Asia Review]

The six diesel-electric submarines will feature advanced air-independent propulsion systems, which helps to make the diesel generator less dependent on surface air and enables the submarine to stay submerged for longer duration, thus substantially increase their operational range. Clearly reflecting the government`s vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat (‘self-reliant India), New Delhi is expected to develop an indigenous submarine program (P-76) after the transfer of technology by the French manufacturer. [The EurAsian Times 2]

Moreover, three more Rafale fighter jets supplied by France landed at an Indian airbase on November 12. It is the second of two batches of aircraft sent to the region after the government’s purchase four years ago of 36 total planes worth $9.2 billion from French defense manufacturer Dassault Aviation. With this, the Indian Airforce now has eight Rafale jets in service after the first five aircrafts landed on July 29 [see AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]. The delivery of all 36 Rafale aircraft is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2021. [Anadolu Agency] [The Hindu]

15 Asian leaders sign RCEP agreement, while India decides to stay out of the pact

(lm) After a meeting in September had yielded ‘significant progress’ towards the world’s largest trade pact [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1], ministers from 15 Asia-Pacific countries inked on November 15 the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Building on existing free trade agreements, the 15 countries – 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus the bloc`s five major trading partners Japan, China, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand – will establish common rules for e-commerce, trade and intellectual property. [The Straits Times 1] [South China Morning Post]

ASEAN leaders had originally proposed the idea of an RCEP in 2012. Talks had begun the following year, and India, an original negotiating participant of the RCEP, was expected to be a signatory nation. At the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok last November, however, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that New Delhi had decided to withdraw from the RCEP over fears the elimination of tariffs would make it difficult to protect domestic industries from China, whose low-priced exports are highly competitive in Indian markets [see AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1, AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2]. According to Indian officials, the thinking in New Delhi over the pact has not changed, as the current structure of the RCEP is considered to disadvantage the import-dependent nation. [The Indian Express] [The Straits Times 2]

Seeking an early conclusion of the RCEP negotiations, China had previously floated the idea of an RCEP without India, but other countries, notably Japan, have repeatedly called on India to return to the negotiations. In a ministerial declaration, the RCEP leaders last week reiterated that the door remains open for India to join and restart negotiations. While China’s participation in the deal had already been proving difficult for India, the Galwan Valley clash in June [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3] has further soured relations between the two countries, leading to a backlash against Chinese products in India. [Asia Times]

Pakistan says it will provide ‘irrefutable evidence’ India sponsor ‘terrorist’ activities

(lm) Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi on November 14 accused India of sponsoring ‘terrorist’ activities from Afghan soil, aimed at destabilizing the country and undermining its economic partnership with China. Further elaborating on the issue, he added that Islamabad would present ‘irrefutable evidence’ of Indian involvement in ‘terrorist’ activities to the United Nations and other international bodies. This comes days ahead of Khan’s visit to Afghanistan, his first since he assumed office in August 2018. [The Express Tribune] [Al Jazeera]

Pakistani officials have long claimed that India sponsors violent groups in Pakistan – claims that India has always denied – but Saturday’s announcement provided a heightened level of detail and specific accusations. Pakistani officials said they had compiled a dossier that documented Indian financial and material sponsorship of the Pakistani Taliban and insurgents from the restive province of Baluchistan who have claimed responsibility for attacks on Chinese infrastructure projects as part of an effort to sabotage the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC) [see also AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. [Deutsche Welle] [Dawn] [South China Morning Post]

New Delhi dismissed the allegations on Sunday, calling them ‘fabricated’ and ‘figments of imagination.’ [Hindustan Times 1]

The Afghan government also rejected the allegation that its territory was being used to train terrorists targeting Pakistan, adding that Islamabad should raise such issues through existing mechanisms such as the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). In September, Pakistani diplomats met under the APAPPS with Afghan officials in Kabul to discuss bilateral ties and security issues [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. [Hindustan Times 2]

India, China are breaking the deadlock in the Himalayas, according to Indian media reports

(lm) After months of fitful progress to resolve their high-altitude border stand-off, a new disagreement has erupted between the neighboring nations, only this time it’s over a purported resolution to the impasse. Quoting senior sources, the Indian media has been reporting since November 11 that the two countries are currently considering a reciprocal disengagement plan for the North Bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 4,242m. The plan, which is yet to be agreed upon by both sides involves creating no-patrol zones, pulling back tanks and artillery, and using drones to verify the withdrawal. [NDTV] [Financial Express]

The reports come just days after senior military commanders from both sides held the latest round of talks on November 6. According to an initial readout, a breakthrough had eluded the talks, as both sides had ruled out the possibility of drawing down troops near the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between Indian and Chinese claims in the region [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. [Deutsche Welle]

According to Indian media reports, disengagement is envisioned as a time-bound, three-step process to dissolve tensions in the ‘Fingers’ region of the northern bank of Pangong Tso. The region has high, finger-like mountain spurs above the water, and control of these spur is disputed by both countries [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1.

During the first phase, China would dismantle its defense structures at the Pangong Tso where its troops are occupying an eight kilometer stretch of land once patrolled exclusively by Indian troops [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]. Further, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would withdraw from Finger 8, while Indian troops would retread to a position between Fingers 2 and 3, effectively restoring the status quo ante. Thereafter, the zone would be declared a demilitarized ‘no patrol’ or ‘buffer’ zone. After the conclusion of phase two, during which tanks and heavy weaponry that had been brought into the area would be pulled back, both sides would withdrawal their troops from specific areas overlooking the south banks of the Pangong Tso and declare this area a ‘no patrol’ zone, too. The plan would conclude with the verification of the disengagement process by both the sides. [Al Jazeera] [South China Morning Post 1]

The Global Times, a state-backed Chinese tabloid, initially cited nearly identical sources, suggesting that both sides were close to an agreement for the Pangong Tso-Chushul area. On Thursday, however, the tabloid then rebutted the Indian media reports, calling them ‘not accurate’ and ‘not helpful for the two sides to reach their established goals’. [Hindustan Times] [The Global Times]

Against the backdrop of the Global Times’ change of heart, observers suggest that the Indian reports may have been premature, rather than inaccurate. Pointing out that the Depsang Plains is not part of the purported disengagement plan, they argue that Beijing may well string out the process in order to test the Indian response. [the quint]

Among possible reasons for a Chinese backtracking, the fact that New Delhi will be disproportionately affected by a premature withdrawal of troops seems the most consequential. With rivers freezing, by mid-November travel within the Indian territory of Ladakh will be easy but snow will block roads to the region, severely compromising the deployment, movement and response time of Indian forces. China, by contrast, has developed formidable infrastructure throughout the Tibet autonomous region. It includes a network of thousands of kilometers of fiber optics, small aperture terminal satellite stations and modern highways and high-speed railways that can rapidly deploy the PLA. [South China Morning Post 2]

East Asia Summit: Deepening cooperation in pandemic response

(dql) Leaders of participating countries at the East Asia Summit on past Saturday stressed the need for countries across the Asia-Pacific to cooperate in tackling the coronavirus pandemic and the current economic crisis.

The Summit brought together Asean’s 10 members plus Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United States. [Straits Times]

China-Australia relations further spiraling downwards

(dql) In a move further worsening already soured relations between China and Australia, the latter is expected to sign a defense pact with Japan during Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s planned visit to Tokyo in the next weeks. The pact is believed to contain a reciprocal agreement to permit the two countries to base troops in each other’s territory, as well as mutual training arrangements. [The Times]

The pact comes at a time when Chinese-Australian relations are declining to historical lows, with Beijing increasing economic pressure on Canberra since it has called for a full investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in April. Currently China is threatening to ban the import of at least seven Australian commodities, worth 6 billion USD. [7 News]

Meanwhile, the Australian navy joined Indian, Japanese, and American warships for the Malabar exercises that kicked off last week in the Indian Ocean. Canberra’s participation after a hiatus of 13 years is a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four Quad-countries in the face of China’s assertiveness in Asia.

Conducted for the first time in 1992 as a bilateral India-US drill, Japan joined the drills as permanent member in 2015. India’s decision to include Australia in this year come against the background of its six-month long military standoff with China in the Himalayas. [VoA]

For an account of the deterioration of Chinese-Australian relations over the course of this year, see Eleanor Albert in [The Diplomat].

India: Five BJP-led state governments plan legislation against ‘love jihad’

(lm) Five Indian state governments, all led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have promised new laws on forced religious conversions around marriage, fueling the ‘love jihad’ conspiracy theory which claims that Muslim men are carrying out an organized campaign to deceive or coerce women into converting to Islam. [The Straits Times]

Despite the strong rhetoric, several official investigations have found no evidence of the existence of ‘love jihad’. In Uttar Pradesh state, for example, police this August established a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to probe cases of inter-faith marriages and alleged forced conversion. Two months later, half of the 14 cases the police were investigating collapsed, after investigators had concluded that these were consensual relationships between Hindu women and their Muslim partners. [NDTV]

However, while there is no evidence for an orchestrated campaign, there have been anecdotal instances that have fueled the conspiracy theories. The recent debate follows the murder of a 20-year-old Hindu woman in the state of Haryana in late October. CCTV footage appeared to show a man shooting the woman as she resisted abduction. Within 24 hours, police arrested the alleged shooter: a Muslim man who the victim’s family said had been stalking her and attempted to kidnap her earlier. [The Indian Express]

India steps up military diplomacy, adds more seats to National Defense College

(lm) The number of seats in India’s prestigious strategic leadership institution, the National Defense College (NDC), will be increased by 20 by 2022. As a result, the allocation for friendly foreign nations, such as Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh, will be increased. Moreover, new seats are also being planned for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Philippines, Indonesia and Maldives. [The Print] [Business Insider]

Sanctioned in 1959, the New Delhi-based NDC is the highest seat of strategic learning for officers of the Indian Armed forces and civil services. It has a current intake of 100 participants for its annual strategic leadership course, 25 of which are officers from friendly foreign nations. Indian officers also attend such courses in the United Kingdom

India, Italy sign 15 Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen bilateral ties

(lm) A virtual bilateral summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Italian counterpart Giuseppe Conte on November 6 has resulted in the signing of 15 agreements in various sectors ranging from trade and investment to infrastructure. Coming in the wake of bilateral summits with the European Union and Denmark [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5], the meeting is the latest in a string of virtual engagements by Modi aimed at deepening political and economic ties with European nations. Leading European nations, such as Germany and France, have also signaled a greater interest in the Indo-Pacific region [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Hindustan Times] 

In an effort to increase Italian investments in India, Italian gas group Snam and India’s Adani signed a series of deals involving hydrogen and low-carbon mobility projects. Europe’s biggest gas transport group also reached an agreement with state-owned Indian Oil to work on energy transition projects, including gas storage and regasification. Rome is currently New Dehli’s fifth largest trading partner in the European Union. [Reuters]

India, Sri Lanka: Local political leaders call on central government to prevent destruction of fishing boats

(ng) Leaders of political parties from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu have called on the central government to take immediate steps to ensure the release of 121 Indian mechanized fishing boats belonging to local fishermen and held by Sri Lankan authorities. Previously, a Sri Lankan court has reportedly permitted authorities to destroy boats that were seized between 2015 and 2018 for allegedly illegally crossing into the Sri Lankan waters. [The Times of India] [Deccan Herald]

In September, the Sri Lankan government pledged to take measures aimed at preventing frequent poaching by Indian fisherman in the island nation’s territorial waters. Before, fishermen in the Tamil-majority Northern Province had launched a protest demanding Fisheries authorities to take actions against intruding Indian trawlers. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

India, China: Breakthrough eludes eighth round of border talks

(lm) A breakthrough eluded senior Indian and Chinese military commanders who met on November 6 for the next round of military talks. On a more positive note, both sides agreed to ensure that their frontline troops exercise restraint and further agreed to have another round of meetings. It is worth noting that the Indian delegation was no longer led by Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, who had hitherto represented the Indian Army but was appointed Commandant of the Indian Military Academy earlier. [The Tribune] [The Hindu]

The eighth round of talks assumed added significance as any large-scale redeployment of troops or de-induction will need to be carried out before heavy winter sets in. With rivers freezing, by mid-November travel within Ladakh will be easy but snow will block roads to the region, leaving airlifts as the only means of transporting troops and supplies in and out. Notwithstanding the ongoing talks to resolve the border issue, both armies thus continue preparing for an extended winter deployment in mostly uninhabited terrain. [Mint] [Times Now News]

The Indian Army has received the initial consignment of extreme cold weather clothing from the United States [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. Moreover, New Delhi deployed two additional divisions from plains, as well as one mountain division which has been training for high-altitude operations, to the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In the same vein, China has shortlisted nearly two dozen private companies to supply advanced unmanned weaponry and graphene clothing to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) regiments deployed along the long high-altitude border areas with India. Against this backdrop, the troop deployment by both sides is very unlikely to be diluted, as a militarized line separating the two requires more than just tiding over the logistics this winter. [Hindustan Times] [The Times of India]

The current situation also found mention in remarks made by India’s Chief of Defense Staff Bipin Rawat in his address at New Delhi’s National Defense College on November 6. While indicating that a full-scale military confrontation with Beijing was low on probability, Rawat cautioned that ‘border confrontations, transgressions, unprovoked tactical military actions’ could spiral into a larger conflict. Further elaborating on the issue, the Chief of Defense Staff said that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was going to face ‘unanticipated consequences’, as New Delhi would not accept any shift in the LAC. [The Straits Times]

During the previous meeting held on October 12, both sides had agreed to firm up a roadmap for defusing tensions along the LAC. The proposals included earmarking all friction points as demilitarized areas with mutually agreeable buffer zones created between the two armies, and delineating the limit of patrolling accordingly to prevent any escalation [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. The major friction points along the de-facto border include the Finger 4 area of Pangong Tso (a glacial lake at 4,242m), certain key features on the southern bank of the lake, the Y-junction at Depsang Plains, as well as the Galwan Valley and Hot Springs areas. [The Print 1]

Beijing had also presented a consolidated proposal, which included withdrawing tanks and artillery guns from forward positions back to their peacetime locations, Indian troops vacating strategic heights in the southern banks of Pangong Tso lake and making Finger 4 in the northern banks a no-go area. On its part, the Indian side had demanded a comprehensive disengagement of troops from all friction points, including the Depsang Plains. Read between the lines, China seems focused only on the southern banks of Pangong Tso and is offering partial withdrawal from northern banks as a sweetener. [The Print 2]

Against this backdrop, it is worth recalling that the high-altitude standoff began in early May, when New Delhi was surprised to find China’s army had built forward bases, occupied mountaintops and deployed thousands of troops to prevent Indian patrols [see AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1, AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2]. By July, talks to restore peace and smoothen bilateral relations had hit a roadblock, as both sides continued to deploy additional weapons and troops, already preparing for the long-haul. While Chinese troops had disengaged and retreated from the Galwan Valley and Hot Springs, they fortified their positions at the Pangong Tso Finger area, reinforcing physical infrastructure and airlifting additional troops [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4].

On the night of August 29, then, India surprised China, mobilizing additional forces to occupy strategic heights and features along the south bank of Pangong Tso. Thousands of Indian soldiers had climbed up mountain peaks along a stretch of more than 40 square kilometers for about six hours after they saw the Chinese forces had made some ingress, violating existing agreements. China was swift to reject the allegations and accused Indian soldiers of trespassing [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1].

The bottom line is that China has pushed further into territory once patrolled exclusively by India and is now occupying about 50 square kilometers of land at Pangong Tso and another 250 in the Depsang Plains, according to Indian officials. [South China Morning Post]

India: Voting in eastern state of Bihar, despite India passing landmark of 8 million coronavirus infections

(lm) Health authorities in India’s eastern state of Bihar faced a big test on October 28 and November 3 as polling began in the first two of three phases to elect members to the Legislative Assembly. More than 70 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots for 243 assembly seats in India’s first major election since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. The third and final phase will be held on November 7; results will be announced on November 10. [The Straits Times]

India’s third-most populous state, Bihar accounts for 40 seats in the 545-member lower house of federal parliament, giving it outsize national influence and making it a key electoral battleground. More importantly, it is the only big state in India’s sprawling and politically febrile Hindi Belt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not won on its own. The party has been in power for more than a decade as a junior partner in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) party (JD-U), a party led by Bihar’s incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is seeking a fourth straight term. [bbc]

Despite two successive landslide victories in federal elections since 2014 [see AiR (4/5/2019)], Modi’s BJP has a mixed record in state elections. First of all, it has not won a clear majority in any state since polls in Uttar Pradesh four years ago. Moreover, it has lost six state elections and gained power in one, Arunachal Pradesh, by cobbling together a majority with a regional rival-turned-partner, since December 2018.

The election comes as India on October 29 surpassed the eight million mark of confirmed coronavirus cases, making it the second country to reach that milestone after the United States. In the run-up to the election, authorities have struggled to enforce social distancing and mask-wearing during rallies across the state that have attracted tens of thousands of people. [South China Morning Post]

India: Federal government changes land laws in Jammu and Kashmir union territory

(lm) In a significant move, India’s central government enacted on October 27 a series of new land laws – and amended some – ending the protections on land rights in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory. The most important change has been made in the Jammu and Kashmir Development Act that governs the disposal of land in the union territory, as the government has ‘omitted’ the term ‘being permanent resident of the state’ as a criterion. The new laws also authorize the Indian army to declare any area as ‘strategic’ for operational, residential and training purposes against Kashmiri rebels. [Scroll.in] [The Straits Times] [The Hindu 1]

Residents and rights groups fear the new laws are aimed at changing the demography of the region, exacerbating concerns that Kashmir could turn into ‘India’s settler-colonial project’. The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, a newly formed conglomeration of parties in the Jammu and Kashmir union territories [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], called the notification a ‘huge betrayal’. [Kashmir Observer]

Two days after New Delhi enacted the new land laws, suspected separatist rebels shot dead three members of the BJP. Moreover, on October 31, the Kashmir Valley then observed a total shutdown in a general strike called for by Tehreek e Hurriyat (All Parties Hurriyat Conference, APHC), a conglomerate of 26 separatist parties. The same day, government forces in riot gear were stationed in large numbers in areas of the region’s main city of Srinagar and across the valley. [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2] [The Indian Express]

In the face of growing anxiety and protests, the provincial government on November 2 said the recently introduced land laws would ‘afford protection to over 90 percent of the land in the Union Territory’, adding that the previous laws were ‘anti-people’. [The Hindu 2]

In August last year, India unilaterally abrogated Article 370 of its constitution, breaking the state of Kashmir into two union territories – one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu and Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh. Heretofore, the state had enjoyed a special status, which allowed it to make its own rules about permanent residency and property ownership [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1].

Since then, India has brought in a slew of changes through new laws. The federal government earlier this year issued new domicile laws for the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which opened up the eligibility criteria for becoming permanent residents. [AiR No. 14, April/2020, 1]

Pakistan summons Indian diplomat over ceasefire violations along disputed border in Kashmir

Pakistan summoned a senior Indian diplomat on October 30 to lodge a formal protest over recent ceasefire violations by Indian forces along the Line of Control (LoC) in the disputed Kashmir region, resulting in serious injuries of two civilians. New Delhi called on Islamabad to respect the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding and to investigate the incident. [The Straits Times] [The Express Tribune]

Earlier this month, Islamabad summoned an Indian diplomat to protest another ceasefire violation by Indian forces along the LoC on October 14, which left two civilians injured.

India designates 18 Pakistan-based individuals as ‘terrorists’

(lm) India has designated 18 Pakistan-based individuals as ‘terrorists’ under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), saying the individuals were involved in various acts of terrorism from across the border. Prior to an amendment in August last year, the government could only designate organizations as terrorist organizations. Since then, 13 individuals have been designated as terrorists without a trial. [Deccan Herald] [The Tribune]

Among those designated as terrorists is Syed Salahudeen, head of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, a pro-Pakistan Kashmiri separatist militant organization operating in Kashmir. Salahudeen also leads the United Jihad Council, a Pakistan-based conglomeration of jihadist militant groups allegedly sponsored by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with the goal of annexing Jammu and Kashmir to Pakistan. Already, Salahuddin is listed on the Most Wanted List of India’s National Investigation Agency. Moreover, on 2017, the US Department of State designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). [The Hindu]

Sri Lanka: Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal inaugurates operations with arrival of first ship

(ng/lm) In the latest effort to soothe the waters with New Delhi, Colombo Port’s Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) inaugurated its operations with the arrival of the first container carrier ship on October 27. Moreover, the public sector Sri Lanka Port Authority (SLPA) is planning to hand over the management of the ECT to Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group. [The Sunday Times] [Colombo Page]

In the run-up to this year’s general election, Colombo had suspended the tri-nation project, which India, Japan, and Sri Lanka were to jointly implement [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. Although Japan and India are keen to see the deep-sea container terminal implemented, there have long been no signs that Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapak thought of reviving it. In September, then, Colombo announced its ‘India First Policy’ [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1], which was soon followed by a virtual summit between Rajapak and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

India and Japan consider their presence in the Colombo Port a strategic necessity in the face of China’s presence in the adjacent Colombo Port City project, a flagship $1.4 billion project in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. India has an additional reason to seek a foothold in Colombo Port as approximately 70 percent of the throughput at Colombo port is accounted for by Indian transshipment. [Maritime Gateway]

Read between the lines, the island nation which finds itself at the crossroads of two strategic policies in the Indian Ocean (US Indo-Pacific Strategy & Chinese BRI) is peeved at being taken for granted in matters of maritime security and spheres of influence in the Indian Ocean. These concerns, at least, were revealed by Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary Jayanath Colombage. Speaking at a webinar on deepening India-Sri Lanka ties on October 29, Colombage asserted that Sri Lanka was a ‘neutral’ and ‘non-aligned’ country. Further elaborating on the issue, he added that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had also conveyed this message to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo [see article in this edition], as well as Yang Jiechi, a Communist Party Politburo member and top foreign policy official [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. [The Wire]

India: Forces kill top militant commander in Indian-administrated Kashmir

(lm) Indian police on Sunday confirmed that a top militant commander of the largest militant group in Indian-administered Kashmir was killed in a gun battle with security forces in the city of Srinagar. Shortly after the gun battle, anti-India protests broke out in the neighborhood. Police fired tear gas and shotgun pellets to stop scores of stone-throwing young men from marching in the area. [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times]

The dead commander, Saifullah Mir, was the chief of operations of Hizbul Mujahideen, a separatist militant group that seeks the integration of the Jammu and Kashmir union territory with Pakistan. For decades, the outfit has spearheaded an armed rebellion against Indian rule. According to officials, Mir took charge of the Hizbul Mujahideen in the Kashmir valley after his predecessor Riyaz Naikoo was killed by Indian security forces in May. [Deutsche Welle]

According to Indian police, 190 militants have been killed in the Muslim-majority region so far this year, with another 50 believed to have surrendered silently. Last week, three young BJP workers were shot dead by militants in southern Kashmir [see article in this edition]

India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting Kashmiri militants – a charge Islamabad has denied. [Reuters]

India, China: Next round of military talks to ease tension along LAC still pending

(lm) In a nod to the recently concluded third edition of the India-US 2+2 dialogue [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4], New Delhi said on October 29 that the ongoing dialogue with China to resolve the border standoff in eastern Ladakh has ‘no connection’ with extraneous issues. During the two-day meeting, India had signed on to the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which commits both countries to provide reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensors. [Hindustan Times 1]

Shortly after the ministerial meeting, on October 27, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington would stand by New Delhi in confronting threats to India’s sovereignty. He also described the Chinese Communist Party as ‘no friend to democracy [and] the rule of law’. In a sharp assertion to Pompeo’s remarks, China the following day said the Sino-India boundary dispute was a bilateral matter, adding that the US Secretary of State’s comments had ‘instigated China’s relations with other countries in the region’. [Hindustan Times 2]

Talks to ease tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are yet to produce a tangible breakthrough in disengagement and de-escalation, despite several rounds of diplomatic and military talks between India and China. Moreover, both countries ramped up infrastructure development and military presence close to the border, since they suffered causalities in the Galwan Valley clash in June. The tens of thousands of troops mobilized by both sides since then have more recently been preparing for an extended winter deployment [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].

Meanwhile, a former lawmaker from the state of Ladakh claimed Chinese troops had further transgressed into Indian territory and occupied prominent positions along the north bank of the Pangong Tso lake. [The Hindu]

Analysis: Quad members are working toward establishing a new multilateral security structure for the region

(lm/ng) Amidst the months-long border standoff with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in eastern Ladakh, India on October 19 announced that the Australia would be invited to join the upcoming trilateral Malabar exercises. Scheduled to be held in November in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, the exercise will be the first for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States, since the grouping’s reconvening in November 2017 [see AiR November/2017, 4, AiR November/2017, 3]. [The Diplomat] [Asia Times]

In August, New Delhi for had the first time made public its intentions to invite the Australian Navy to join the annual instalment of the Malabar exercise, a decision that was complicated by ongoing tensions between India and China [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]. The decision to include Australia in the drills follows repeated requests from Canberra and lobbying by Washington and Tokyo and is a clear indication that the region’s four leading democracies are now actively working toward establishing a new multilateral security structure for the region [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

Significantly, this year’s installment of the Malabar exercise will take place on the heels of the third round of the India-US 2+2 dialogue, scheduled for October 26-27. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper will meet with their Indian counterparts this week to strengthen strategic ties with New Delhi, as part of Washington’s latest efforts to bolster allies against China’s growing assertiveness in the region. After India, Pompeo will travel to Sri Lanka and the Maldives, two Indian Ocean countries struggling with a mountain of Chinese debt incurred to finance big infrastructure projects. He will conclude his trip in Indonesia, which is also locked in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. [The Straits Times 1]

Ahead of the formal two-plus-two talks, India on October 26 announced it would sign on to the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the last of the four foundational agreements that Washington maintains with its other close defense partners. Under the satellite-intelligence pact, both countries will be committed to providing reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensors. With India and Japan signing a military logistics agreement in September [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3], New Delhi already has such agreements with the other Quad members. [South Asia Monitor] [The Straits Times 2]

As Indian troops remain battle-ready, facing Chinese forces at the border in eastern Ladakh, New Delhi has further increased defense procurements from the US, enabling interoperability [see e.g. AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. From essentially zero dollars in defense cooperation prior to 2008, India-United States bilateral defense trade has grown to more than $21 billion over the past years. [The Wall Street Journal]

Speculation about Washington’s interest to explore a new framework for Indo-Pacific cooperation, dubbed the “Quad Plus”, received a boost in September, when US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said that the US was aiming to ‘formalize’ the groupings’ military, economic and development cooperation. Though cautioning visions of an Indo-Pacific NATO, at that time, Biegun emphasized that the format shall remain open for other countries to join but ‘align in a more structured manner’ [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1, AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1,]. [Project Syndicate]

Biegun, who was in New Delhi earlier this month to lay the groundwork for the India-US 2+2 dialogue, said the United States and India have been ‘too cautious’ about Beijing’s reaction to the grouping with Japan and Australia. Speaking at a think-tank event during his visit to Delhi, Biegun said Washington would respect India’s tradition of ‘Strategic Autonomy’, and did not seek to pull it into a security alliance, but hoped to build a partnership in the region through the Quad, which he dubbed ‘Pax Indo-Pacifica’. [The Hindu] [Bloomberg]

Noteworthy, the US Deputy Secretary of State also touched on the November 3 US presidential election, saying that any possible outcome was unlikely to affect deepening US-ties with New Delhi because ‘this relationship is much bigger than any one political party.’ According to observers, US-Indian relations would continue to see an upward trajectory, albeit with nuanced changes in case Democrats take the White House. While the administration of US President Donald Trump has often sidestepped questions on human rights issues [see e.g. AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4] Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the past has expressed disappointment with the Indian government over its new citizenship law. Further, his running mate Kamala Harris, whose mother’s side of the family is from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, has voiced strong opinions about India’s crackdown in Kashmir [Foreign Policy] [Deutsche Welle] [India West]

India gives submarine to Myanmar

(lf) India has given a submarine to Myanmar, as part of their strategy to counter Chinese growing influence in the Indian Ocean. Previously, neighboring Bangladesh bought two submarines from China. In addition, China has become involved in building a submarine station and deep sea port in the Bay of Bengal for Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is a strategically important area, in which India has been trying to limit Chinese influence. [Voice of America]

India successfully completes final trial of anti-tank missile, commissions new stealth corvette to Navy

(lm) While its troops remain battle-ready, facing Chinese forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, India has successfully completed the final trials of its domestically manufactured NAG anti-tank missile. Prior to Wednesday’s test, India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) on October 19 tested the helicopter launched Stand-off Anti-Tank Missile (SANT) from a testing range in Odisha. [Sputnik News]

In light of the NAG successfully clearing the final trials, the Indian Army will no longer have to import anti-tank missiles from either Israel or the United States. Noteworthy, it was due to the unavailability of a credible anti-tank weapon that New Delhi had to procure around 200 anti-tank missiles from Israel under an emergency purchase, in the wake of the Galwan flare-up on June 15 [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3]. [Hindustan Times]

Moreover, the Indian Navy commissioned its fourth and final indigenously built Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) stealth corvette in a ceremony held on 22 October at the Naval Dockyard in Visakhapatnam. The ship is part of Kamorta-class corvettes or Project 28, a class of anti-submarine warfare corvettes currently in service with the Indian Navy, which was approved in 2008. The other three ASW stealth covettes were commissioned in 2014, 2016, and 2017. [Janes] [The EurAsian Times]

The project has aimed to achieve localisation and development of warship construction industry in India. In 2015, the Indian Navy had introduced its “Indian Naval Indigenisation Plan (INIP) 2015-2030,” which specified the need for locally developed, advanced systems in order for the Navy to be the net-centric security provider in the Indian Ocean [see also AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].

Maldives’ minister calls into question Free Trade Agreement with China

(lm) Speaking on a program aired by the state radio station, Maldives’ economic minister called into question the country’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China, saying the agreement should not have been signed in the first place as it may hamper trade relations with other countries, notably India. Refuting the minister’s statement, China’s Ambassador to Maldives declared that the FTA is of ‘mutual benefit and high-quality’, adding that ‘it conforms to international practice and will lift the economic and trade ties to new level.’ [The Economic Times] [The Edition 1]

Notwithstanding the economic minister’s statement, China and Maldives engaged in discussions on Thursday, to explore bilateral economic cooperation in a post-COVID-19 environment. [The Edition 2]

The contentious agreement was signed between then-President Abdulla Yameen and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during the former’s first state visit to Beijing in December 2017. At the time, Beijing was embarking on its grand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and therefore, financed several major projects during Yameen’s five-year tenure [see e.g. AiR No. 39, September/2019, 4].

Following his election victory in November 2018, incumbent President Ibrahim Solih quickly moved to normalize relations with New Delhi, returning to the Maldives’ traditional ‘India First’ policy [see e.g. AiR (2/6/2019)]. In this context, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first overseas trip after his re-election to the Maldives. It was also during that time that members of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party for the first time openly questioned the FTA [see AiR (4/11/2018)].

In a bid to counter China ’s growing financial footprint in South Asia, New Delhi-backed infrastructure projects are currently being implemented at a fast pace. Further, India has provided a host of support measures to the Indian Ocean archipelago to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [see e.g. AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3, AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].

United States Deputy Secretary of State visits Bangladesh, as US tries to engage with smaller countries

(lm) Speaking after a meeting with Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister, US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said Dhaka will be a ‘centerpiece’ of the United States’ work in the region as it sees the country as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region. During a meeting the previous day, he invited Dhaka to explore opportunities in signing a Free Trade Agreement with the US. [bdnews24.com] [The Daily Star]

Biegun’s three-day visit in Dhaka followed US Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s phone conversation with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in September. Significantly, Bangladesh had not hosted a senior United States’ diplomat of Biegun’s stature since August 2016 – a clear sign that the United States is stepping up efforts to raise its visibility in South Asia at a time when China has increased engagement with countries in the region through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Before he arrived in Dhaka on Wednesday, Biegun was in New Delhi earlier in the week where he delivered the opening speech of the India-US Forum and held talks with Indian officials on areas of mutual interest. In doing so, Biegun laid the groundwork for the U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue involving the foreign and defense ministers of the two sides scheduled for October 26-27 [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. [South China Morning Post 1]

While in New Delhi, Biegun also had an informal meeting with the Bhutanese Ambassador to India, since Bhutan does not maintain diplomatic relations with any of the UN Security Council’s permanent members, preferring to keep them at arm’s length. [U.S. Department of State] [South China Morning Post 2] 

India conducts second trial of surface-to-surface missile

India on October 16 successfully conducted a night trial of its indigenously developed nuclear-capable Prithvi-2 missile from a test range in Odisha. [The Times of India] [Hindustan Times]

Against the backdrop of heightened tension with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the Ministry of Defense’s top research and development arm, has conducted a series of missile tests [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. Friday’s flight test was the second of the surface-to-surface missile in less than three weeks, and the eleventh missile test carried out by the DRDO in the past 40 days 

India apprehends Chinese soldier who strayed across disputed border in Indian-controlled Ladakh

On Monday, the Indian Army announced it had apprehended a Chinese soldier after he ‘strayed’ across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldier was captured inside Indian-controlled Ladakh’s Demchok area, and was returned after the completion of formalities after China urged India to return the soldier ‘in a timely manner’. [The Straits Times 1] [Associated Press] [South China Morning Post 1]

As the tensions in Ladakh continue with no sign of dissolution, India has bought high-altitude warfare kits from the United States under the Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement, a sign that New Delhi is preparing for an extended winter deployment. In this context, S. K. Saini, the second-highest ranking general in the Indian Army, is on a scheduled visit to the US Army Pacific Command to discuss other emergency purchases and building capabilities. [The Indian Express] [The Straits Times 2]

Counter to the usual practice of giving the eastern and northern army units of the PLA the latest equipment first, Beijing is also prioritizing its soldiers in Tibet for winter equipment and patrol gear. Still, in light of the onset of bone-chilling temperatures and high-speed freezing winds, observers recognize that the Chinese troops’ new winter equipment ‘may not give them an advantage in skirmishes in the wild’, because India’s soldiers are more accustomed to war in ice cold high altitude environments. [South China Morning Post 2] [South China Morning Post 3]

While talks to ease tensions along the disputed border are yet to produce a tangible breakthrough in de-escalation, India and China are expected to hold the eighth round of military talks next week. On October 12, senior commanders held the seventh round of talks in the western Himalayas that went on for more than 10 hours [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. [Hindustan Times]

Moreover, Beijing reiterated on October 13 that it does not recognize the region of Ladakh, the region at the center of the China-India border dispute that New Delhi designated as a union territory last year. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 29 had for the first time refused to recognize the Union Territory of Ladakh and, in a separate statement, said it would abide only by a ‘very clear’ border alignment first spelt out in 1959 by late Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai – a claim explicitly rejected by India then and since [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2].The statement came just a day after India inaugurated 44 permanent bridges across seven states and Union territories, in an effort to catch up with Chinese infrastructure development on the other side of the LAC [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. New Delhi, in a sharp assertion on October 15, said Beijing had no right to comment on its internal matters. [South China Morning Post 4]

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to visit Sri Lanka, Maldives after Delhi talks later this month

(lm/ng) Against the backdrop of further Chinese advancements [see above], a highly-anticipated Colombo visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assumes added significance. Pompeo was previously scheduled to come to Sri Lanka in June 2019 but the visit had to be cancelled over concern about growing sentiments against a proposed American military base on the island.

Pompeo, who will visit Sri Lanka en route to New Delhi in the coming weeks [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2], will presumably press Colombo on the pending US proposal on the $480 million Compact of the ‘Millennium Challenge Cooperation’ (MCC) [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5] and a new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Washington has been pressuring Colombo since July 2019 to renew its SOFA, which allows visa-free movement of US security and defense personnel in and out of Sri Lanka. [The Indian Express] [South Asia Journal]

Significantly, Sri Lanka has not hosted a high-level United States’ diplomat since John Kerry’s visit in 2015 – a clear sign that the United States regards Sri Lanka – situated just north of the main naval trade routes across the Indian Ocean that serve as China’s economic lifeline – as a crucial part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. Still, the Sri Lankan government may not bend to the United States on the issue of the MCC or the SOFA as both agreements have come under heavy flak from Sri Lankan nationalists. [The Diplomat]

Indicating how closely Washington monitors political developments on the island, the US Department of Defense in its annual report to Congress last month named Sri Lanka as one of the countries where Beijing ‘is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces.’ [US Department of Defense]

Taiwan-India relations: Growing relations 

(ef) Speaking at an event to mark the handover of the leadership of the Taiwan-India Parliamentary Friendship Association, the group’s new chairwoman vowed to promote bilateral parliamentary exchanges between the two countries. 

She also thanked India’s media for their support, referring to China’s attempts weeks earlier to order Indian journalists to not refer to Taiwan as a country or a nation when reporting on Taiwan’s National Day (Oct. 10). Beijing’s attempts backfired. Not only did the Indian Foreign Ministry tell the Chinese Embassy to keep its hands out of Indian media, but the #TaiwanNationalDay subsequently trended on Indian Twitter. Furthermore, President Tsai Ing-wen retweeted several photos from her trip to India in 2012 to thank her new Indian followers.

Whilst India does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, its government has also not openly endorsed the One-China-principle since 2010.[Focus Taiwan] [The Diplomat] [Hindustan Times]

Nepal: Cabinet reshuffle ahead of Indian Army Chief visit

(lm) Prime Minister Oli has reshuffled his cabinet, attaching hitherto-Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ishwar Pokharel to the Prime Minister’s Office and appointing another three new ministers – a move that leaves Pokharel without portfolio. The reshuffle took place after co-chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal held talks with the prime minister, approving the move that he considers necessary to increase the efficiency of the government. [The Himalayan Times]

Observers see a connection between the decision to transfer Pokharel and the upcoming visit of Indian Army Chief General Naravane, scheduled for November 3, saying the transfer is part of an effort by Prime Minister Oli to reset ties with neighboring India. Pokharel, after all, had strongly opposed the visit, saying that both countries should first solve their boundary dispute. [Hindustan Times] [The Himalayan Times] [One India]

While China and India are currently engaged in heightened border tensions in the Himalayas [see e.g. AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2], bilateral ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu had been strained over border-related issues since last November. The diplomatic gap between the two countries widened further in May when New Delhi announced the inauguration of a new Himalayan link road built through the disputed area of Kalapani that lies at a strategic three-way junction with Tibet and China [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. In July, then, Nepal unilaterally changed its map, showing the disputed territories of Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani within its borders [see AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1, AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3, AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. At that time, Indian observers had urged their government not to burn all the bridges between Kathmandu and New Delhi, arguing the dispute pushed Nepal closer to China.

Resuming dialogue in August, Prime Minister Oli had laid the groundwork for his reformed India outreach when he called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to greet him on the occasion of India’s 74th Independence Day [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3]. More recently, the prime minister last month stopped the distribution of a new text book that included the country’s revised political map.

India: Kashmir parties forge group for restoration of ‘special status’

(lm) After chairing a meeting of Kashmir’s main parties, the president of one of Jammu and Kashmir’s oldest parties, the National Conference (NC), announced a new grouping called the ‘Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration’ to seek a peaceful restoration of the disputed region’s autonomy. Prior to this, the Indian government ordered the release of former Kashmiri Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti after a 14-month detention, who promptly called for a campaign to restore Indian-administered Kashmir’s special rights. [Hindustan Times] [Al Jazeera]

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year unilaterally abrogated the special status hitherto enjoyed by its side of the state of Kashmir, cracked down on opposition and rounded up hundreds of people to forestall protests [see AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1] [AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. After revoking the region’s autonomy, New Delhi imposed a protracted communication blackout with mobiles phones, internet links and landlines cut. In August, authorities then ordered the restoration of high-speed 4G internet services in two of Kashmir’s 20 districts on a ‘trial basis’ from after India’s Supreme Court ruled that an indefinite shutdown of the internet was illegal [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3].

In May, the NC had pulled out of the Delimitation Commission, which was set up to redraw Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Jammu and Kashmir, and accused the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of seeking to divide the Union Territory on religious lines by manufacturing a Hindu dominance in the Kashmir valley. [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]

India: Pakistan, China are building new missile sites along country’s western border

(lm) Citing sources in India’s security establishment, Indian newspaper The Telegraph reports that Chinese troops are conducting joint patrols with Pakistan’s army in the Pakistani-administered territories of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Further, Beijing is allegedly helping Pakistan set up sites for surface-to-air missile defense system near the Line of Control (LoC). Previously, Indian Air Force chief Air Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria on October 5 had confirmed that Chinese and Pakistani armies were carrying out joint exercises, adding that there was nothing to suggest that both countries were colluding for a “two-front war”. [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1] [The Telegraph]

Sources at India’s security establishment further alleged that Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), following a new modus operandi, has been instructed to push a maximum number of unarmed infiltrators into the Jammu and Kashmir union territory, who would then be provided with arms and ammunition through drones. [The Print]

During second meeting of the Quad, India commits to grouping’s vision of free, open Indo-Pacific

(lm) In his opening speech at the second ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in Tokyo, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on October 6 reiterated that India was committed to a rules-based world order, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty and peaceful resolution of disputes. The meeting was supposed to be held in New Delhi last September in a 2+2 ministerial format, bringing together the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Japan, India, Australia and the United States.

With India set to begin a two-year stint as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council next year, Jaishankar said the country looks forward to “seeking collective solutions to global challenges, including global recovery from the pandemic and reform of multilateral institutions”. [Hindustan Times]

In a nod to the Indo-Pacific strategy published by Germany’s Federal Foreign Office in September, Jaishankar said that it “is a matter of satisfaction that the Indo-Pacific concept has gained increasingly wider acceptance”. Germany was the second European nation to use the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a geographical and strategic construct in foreign and security policy discourse, following France which adopted its Indo-Pacific strategy in May 2019 [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

Meeting on the sidelines of the Quad-meeting, Jaishankar and his United States’ counterpart Mike Pompeo reviewed the efforts by the two countries to combat the COVID-19 pandemic while also stressing the need to work together to advance security in the Indo-Pacific region.

India and China edging towards a war?

(lm) In an attempt to work out steps to preserve an uneasy truce, India and China held their seventh round of military talks on Monday coinciding with the first of a three-day visit to New Delhi of US Deputy Secretary of State, Stephen Biegun. [see article above].

The composition of the Indian delegation to the border talks remained the same as that of 21 September when the two sides met at Moldo, on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. At that time, talks had yielded a joint statement – the first since the two delegations started talks in June to end the border crisis that had started in May when India detected multiple intrusions into Ladakh [see AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2]. [South China Morning Post 1]

Expectations of a tangible breakthrough on de-escalation, however, are low. When the foreign ministers of both countries met in Moscow on September 10, they reached a “five-point consensus”, agreeing to stop deploying more troops to their contested border and avoid any action that might lead to an aggravation of the situation on the ground. Yet a month later, as winter is setting in, both sides have ramped up efforts to move equipment and supplies such as winter clothing and mountaineering gear to forward locations along the LAC where tens of thousands of troops are still caught in a tense deadlock [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. Hence, observers are concerned, the disputed Himalayan border could become “permanently contested militarized zone” resembling the Line of Control (LOC) dividing India and Pakistan. [South China Morning Post 2]

The onset of winter degrees far below zero and high-speed freezing winds add to a possible mountain war scenario under high-altitude conditions for which the heavily deployed Indian T-90 and T-72 battle tanks of Russian origin could be more suited than the corresponding Chinese equipment. Furthermore, different from the Chinese troops, Indian troops have experience in high-altitude combat and winter warfare.

Meanwhile, India in recent weeks has signaled a renewed push to catch up with Chinese infrastructure development on the other side of the LAC – a move that could widen the gulf between the two countries. After all, among possible triggers cited for the most recent military contention, diverging apprehensions on border infrastructure along the unmarked boundary seems to be the most consequential [see e.g. AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]. While inaugurating the strategically important all-weather Atal Tunnel at Rohtang in Himachal Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week said the government would continue to expedite several frontier projects including roads, bridges and high-altitude airstrips [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

On Monday, then, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated 44 permanent bridges across seven states and union territories built by the Border Roads Organization (BRO). Further elaborating on the issue, Singh said the bridges would provide improved connectivity in the remote areas of the country’s western, northern and the northeast sectors and further meet the transport and logistics requirements of the Indian troops throughout the year. [The Hindu]

US Deputy Secretary of State to visit India, Bangladesh this week

(lm) In the run-up to the US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue later this month, United States Deputy Secretary of State, Stephen Biegun, is scheduled to visit New Delhi from October 12 to 14 to meet with senior government officials and to deliver keynote remarks at the India-US Forum, a platform convened by the Ananta Centre and the External Affairs Ministry. [The Print] [The Hindu 1] [The Tribune]

Following up on Secretary Mike Pompeo’s October 6 conversation with Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar in Tokyo [see below], talks will focus on how to advance the United States-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, according to the US Department of State. While diplomatic and military ties between New Delhi and Washington have been on an upswing over the past two decades, against the backdrop of the border dispute between India and China, relations have recently accelerated quite significantly. [New York Times]

After his Delhi visit, Biegun will fly to Dhaka for meetings with senior officials to “reaffirm” the US-Bangladesh partnership, according to the United States State Department. It is significant that the US is focusing on Bangladesh, a close neighbor of India after concluding a Defense Cooperation Agreement with the Maldives in September, bringing the archipelago firmly into the ‘Indo-Pacific’ side of the emerging geopolitical maritime fault line pitting the US and its allies against China [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

Significantly, Bangladesh has not hosted a senior United States’ diplomat of Biegun’s stature since August 2016 – a clear sign that the United States is stepping up efforts to entice Bangladesh into closer embrace as a key Indo-Pacific partner. In a rare outreach, United States Secretary of Defense Mark Esper phoned Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheihk Hasina in September to explore ways to help modernizing the Dhaka’s military by 2030. The conversation was soon followed by a virtual talk between Bangladeshi decision-makers and Laura Stone, a Deputy Assistant with the US Department of State. [The Hindu 2] –Nikkei Asia Review]

Speculation about Washington’s interest to explore a new framework for Indo-Pacific cooperation, beyond the existing Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), had first received a boost in September, when Stephen Biegun had noted that the United States were aiming to “formalize” the groupings’ military, economic and development cooperation. Though cautioning visions of an Indo-Pacific NATO at that time, Biegun still had emphasized that the format shall remain open for other countries to join but “align in a more structured manner” [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. However, in the run-up to the second ministerial meeting of the Quad, a senior US state department official earlier this month dismissed talk of formalizing the grouping, saying the United States wanted to strengthen existing regional architectures, not create new ones [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

Taiwan-India relations: Taiwan thanks India for support amid cross-strait tensions

(ef) As the Chinese embassy in New Delhi tried to influence Indian media coverage of Taiwan’s National Day, India’s Ministry of External Affairs reiterated that India’s media was free and will report on the news as it sees fit. The Chinese embassy asked around 250 Indian journalists to not refer to Taiwan as a “country” or a “nation” when covering Taiwan’s National Day.

As India’s foreign minister prompted journalists to adhere to the standards of free and impartial journalism, Taiwan’s Joseph Wu, the foreign minister, and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center thanked India for its support. According to the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, the harsh remarks from India’s foreign minister stem from the fact that the attempted concealment of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the China-India border dispute in Ladakh have harnessed anti-China sentiments in India. [Focus Taiwan]

India: Naga insurgency – Maoist separatist group in Northeast India on the state of affairs

(lm) The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) on October 5 made public that it had written to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February to ask for peace talks to be held in “a third country”. The Maoist group explained that it had withheld the letter for seven months before releasing it to the media, because it expected the prime minister to respond positively. [National Herald] [The Free Press Journal]

Now, the NSCN-IM accuses both, the federal government and the state governor of Nagaland and interlocutor in the Naga peace process, of “repeated militarization and a conscious carrying out of state terrorism in the Naga areas and against the Naga people”. [NDTV]

On a more positive note, the NSCN-IM added that talks regarding a separate Naga flag and constitution, which they argue are implied in a framework agreement signed in 2015, are underway with the Indian government. Disagreement about whether the proposed Naga state would have its own flag and constitution has been a major sticking point in the negotiations, because the Indian Government, until recently, had ruled out a separate flag and constitution. [The Economic Times]

The conflict in the state of Nagaland is India’s longest lasting insurgency, which has continued in one form or another since the Naga National Council – the oldest Naga national organization – declared an independent Naga nation in August 1947. The main goal of the NSCN-IM is to establish a sovereign Naga state, the People’s Republic of Nagalim (PRN), by unifying all the Naga-inhabited areas in Northeast India and Northwest Myanmar. In 1997, the NSCN-IM and the Indian government signed a bilateral ceasefire agreement, and the two sides have been attempting to reach a peace agreement ever since. The largest armed Naga nationalist group, the NSCN-IM has been negotiating with the Indian government to reach a conclusive and permanent agreement since August 2019. [Caravan Magazine]

India successfully flight-tests anti-radiation missile

(lm) After already conducting at least eight missiles tests in the past five weeks [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has continued carrying out a series of missile test flights. [Hindustan Times]

On October 9, the top research and development arm of India’s Ministry of Defense successfully flight-tested its first indigenous anti-radiation missile (RUDRAM) off the coast of Odisha. Anti-radiation missiles are meant to take out designated targets that emit radio frequency, such as radars, jammers, and communication sites, thereby foiling any plans to launch surface-to-air missiles. [The Economic Times]

Against the backdrop of heightened tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a 1,000-kilometer range subsonic cruise missile is expected to be tested within the next couple of days and to be inducted into both Indian Army and Navy soon thereafter. A limited number of missiles has already been deployed in response to Chinese build-ups in Tibet and Xinjiang, according to reports. [Swarajya] [New Indian Express]